## World Economic Outlook, April 2024: Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence _World Economic Outlook, April 2024_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [World Economic Outlook, April 2024: Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: April 16, 2024 --- ### Global outlook and key statistics - Baseline forecast: world economy to grow at 3.2 percent during 2024 and 2025, the same pace as in 2023. - Advanced economies growth: rise from 1.6 percent in 2023 to 1.7 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025. - Emerging market and developing economies growth: slowdown from 4.3 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in both 2024 and 2025. - Global growth five years from now: forecast at 3.1 percent (noted as the lowest in decades). - Global inflation: decline from 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025. - Advanced economies expected to return to inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies. - Core inflation: generally projected to decline more gradually. ### Inflation, monetary policy, and resilience - Economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022–23 despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability. - With inflationary pressures abating more swiftly than expected in many countries, risks to the global outlook are described as broadly balanced compared with last year. - Monetary policy guidance: ensure that inflation "touches down smoothly." ### Chapter 2 — Housing markets and transmission of monetary policy - Monetary policy effects through mortgage and housing markets are stronger where: - fixed-rate mortgages are not common; - home buyers are more leveraged; - household debt is high; - housing supply is restricted; - house prices are overvalued. - These characteristics vary significantly across countries, explaining why monetary policy is strong in some countries and weak in others. - Recent shifts in mortgage and housing markets may have limited the drag of higher policy rates up to now in several countries. - Policy risk note: the risk that households may still "feel the pinch" should be taken seriously where fixed-rate mortgages have short fixation periods, especially if households are heavily indebted. ### Chapter 3 — Medium-term growth slowdown and drivers - Key finding: significant and widespread slowdown in total factor productivity is a major driver of the growth decline. - Contributing factors: - increased misallocation of capital and labor between firms within sectors; - demographic pressures; - slowdown in private capital formation. - Projection: absent policy action or technological advances, medium-term growth is projected to fall well below prepandemic levels. - Measures to bolster growth recommended: - improve resource allocation to productive firms; - boost labor force participation; - leverage artificial intelligence for productivity gains. - Additional constraints cited: high public debt and geoeconomic fragmentation may impose further limits on future growth. ### Chapter 4 — Spillovers from G20 emerging markets - G20 emerging markets account for almost one-third of world GDP and about one-quarter of global trade. - Since 2000, spillovers from shocks in G20 emerging markets—particularly China—have increased and are now comparable in size to those from shocks in advanced economies. - Trade, notably through global value chains, is highlighted as a key propagation channel. - Spillovers generate a reallocation of economic activity across firms and sectors in other countries. - Scenario: a plausible growth acceleration in G20 emerging markets, even excluding China, could support global growth over the medium term and spill over to other countries. - Policy guidance for recipient economies: maintain sufficient buffers and strengthen policy frameworks to manage the possibility of larger shocks from G20 emerging markets. ### Cross-cutting policy recommendations and priorities - Renewed focus on fiscal consolidation to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and priority investments, and to ensure debt sustainability. - Intensify supply-enhancing reforms to increase growth toward the higher prepandemic era average and accelerate income convergence. - Multilateral cooperation is needed to: - limit the costs and risks of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change; - speed the transition to green energy; - facilitate debt restructuring. *World Economic Outlook, April 2024: Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence* --- ## Content in this bundle - **Chapter 1** - [Chapter 1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 1 Online Annex** - [Chapter 1 Online Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 1 Online Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 2** - [Chapter 2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 2 Online Annex** - [Chapter 2 Online Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 2 Online Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **CHAPTER 3 SLOWDOWN IN gLObaL MEDIUM-TERM gROWTH: WHaT WILL IT TaKE TO TURN THE TIDE?** - [CHAPTER 3 SLOWDOWN IN gLObaL MEDIUM-TERM gROWTH: WHaT WILL IT TaKE TO TURN THE TIDE? (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [CHAPTER 3 SLOWDOWN IN gLObaL MEDIUM-TERM gROWTH: WHaT WILL IT TaKE TO TURN THE TIDE? (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 3 Online Annex** - [Chapter 3 Online Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 3 Online Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **ch4: TRaDINg PLaCES: REaL SPILLOvERS FROM g20 EMERgINg MaRKETS** - [ch4: TRaDINg PLaCES: REaL SPILLOvERS FROM g20 EMERgINg MaRKETS (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch4.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [ch4: TRaDINg PLaCES: REaL SPILLOvERS FROM g20 EMERgINg MaRKETS (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch4.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 4 Online Annex** - [Chapter 4 Online Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch4onlineannex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 4 Online Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/ch4onlineannex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Commodity Special Feature** - [Commodity Special Feature (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Commodity Special Feature (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Executive Summary** - [Executive Summary (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/execsum.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Executive Summary (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/execsum.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Foreword** - [Foreword (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/foreword.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Foreword (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/foreword.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Statistical Appendix** - [Statistical Appendix (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/statsappendix.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Statistical Appendix (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/statsappendix.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Table a** - [Table a (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/tablea.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Table a (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/tablea.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Table b** - [Table b (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/tableb.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Table b (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/tableb.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Full Report** - [Full Report (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/text.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Full Report (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/text.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- ## References - [Previous Issues](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO) - [DataMapper](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO) - [Press Conference](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6351037300112) - [April 2024 Database](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/weo-database/2024/april) - [Blog by IMF's Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/04/16/global-economy-remains-resilient-despite-uneven-growth-challenges-ahead) - [Chapter 1 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/data/ch1data.zip) - [Chapter 2 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/data/ch2data.zip) - [blog by imf staff](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/04/08/housing-is-one-reason-not-all-countries-feel-same-pinch-of-higher-interest-rates) - [Chapter 3 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/data/ch3data.zip) - [Panel Discussion](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6350628109112) - [blog by imf staff](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/04/10/world-must-prioritize-productivity-reforms-to-revive-medium-term-growth) - [Chapter 4 Data](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2024/april/english/data/ch4data.zip) - [Panel Discussion](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6350578386112) - [Blog by IMF Staff](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/04/09/emerging-markets-are-exercising-greater-global-sway) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024_