{ "title": "World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim", "publication": "World Economic Outlook, October 2025", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025/index.md", "summary": "The latest World Economic Outlook reports a slowdown in global growth with risks remaining tilted to the downside. As new policies slowly come to focus, adjustment to the emerging landscape should be aided with credible, predictable, sustainable actions.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Global outlook and headline projections", "content": "- Global growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026.\n- Advanced economies are projected to grow around 1.5 percent.\n- Emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow just above 4 percent.\n- Global headline inflation is expected to decline further, though it will remain above target in the United States—with risks tilted to the upside—and be subdued elsewhere.\n- Near-term forecast is revised up modestly relative to the April 2025 WEO but remains a downward revision relative to pre-policy-shift forecasts.\n- Temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025—such as front-loading—are fading." }, { "heading": "Key risks to the outlook", "content": "- Risks are tilted to the downside.\n- Prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism, and labor supply shocks could reduce growth.\n- Fiscal vulnerabilities and potential financial market corrections could threaten stability.\n- Erosion of institutions and pressure on the independence of key economic institutions could undermine sound economic decision making.\n- An abrupt repricing of tech stocks could threaten macrofinancial stability.\n- Larger-than-expected shocks to labor supply could reduce growth, especially in economies facing aging populations and skill shortages.\n- Rising borrowing costs and increased rollover risks for sovereigns could interact with fiscal and financial fragilities." }, { "heading": "Policy guidance and cross-cutting recommendations", "content": "- Policymakers are urged to restore confidence through credible, transparent, and sustainable policies.\n- Trade diplomacy should be paired with macroeconomic adjustment.\n- Fiscal buffers should be rebuilt.\n- Central bank independence should be preserved.\n- Efforts on structural reforms should be redoubled.\n- Stronger policy frameworks enhance the implementation and credibility of monetary and fiscal policies." }, { "heading": "Chapter highlights", "content": "- Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies\n - Global growth is projected to slow and growth prospects remain dim as the world adjusts to a landscape marked by greater protectionism and fragmentation.\n - Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside.\n - To navigate a global economy in flux, policymakers should restore confidence through credible, transparent, and sustainable policies.\n\n- Chapter 2: Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies?\n - Emerging markets have shown remarkable resilience to risk-off shocks in recent years.\n - Favorable external conditions—good luck—contributed to this resilience, while improvements in policy frameworks—good policies—played a critical role.\n - Improvements in monetary and fiscal policy implementation and credibility have reduced reliance on foreign exchange interventions.\n - Countries with robust frameworks face easier policy trade-offs and are better positioned to navigate risk-off episodes.\n - Economies with weaker frameworks risk de-anchoring inflation expectations and larger output losses if monetary tightening is delayed; costly foreign exchange interventions offer only temporary relief in these settings.\n\n- Chapter 3: Industrial Policy: Managing Trade-Offs to Promote Growth and Resilience\n - Countries are increasingly using industrial policy to support strategic sectors and firms, motivated by boosting productivity, reducing reliance on imports, and enhancing resilience.\n - Industrial policies can help jump-start domestic industries, but efficacy is sensitive to sector-specific characteristics that are hard to determine in advance.\n - Trade-offs of industrial policy include: higher consumer prices for a prolonged period from onshoring; substantial fiscal cost at a time of elevated debt and constrained public finances; negative cross-sector spillovers; and reduced overall productivity by drawing resources inefficiently away from non-targeted sectors.\n - Effective industrial policy requires careful targeting and implementation, strong institutions, complementary structural reforms, and sound macroeconomic policy.\n\nSource: World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Chapter 1 Data\n - Chapter 1 Data (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 Data (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- Chapter 2 Data\n - Chapter 2 Data (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 2 Data (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- Chapter 3 Data\n - Chapter 3 Data (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 3 Data (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- Chapter 1\n - Chapter 1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 1 Online Annex\n - Chapter 1 Online Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 Online Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2\n - Chapter 2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- ch2onlineannexes\n - ch2onlineannexes (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - ch2onlineannexes (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- CHAPTER 3 INDUSTRIAL POLICY: MANAGING TRADE-OFFS TO PROMOTE GROWTH AND RESILIENCE\n - CHAPTER 3 INDUSTRIAL POLICY: MANAGING TRADE-OFFS TO PROMOTE GROWTH AND RESILIENCE (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - CHAPTER 3 INDUSTRIAL POLICY: MANAGING TRADE-OFFS TO PROMOTE GROWTH AND RESILIENCE (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Ch3onlineannexes\n - Ch3onlineannexes (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Ch3onlineannexes (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Commodity Special Feature\n - Commodity Special Feature (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Commodity Special Feature (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Executive Summary\n - Executive Summary (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Executive Summary (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Foreword\n - Foreword (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Foreword (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Statistical Appendix\n - Statistical Appendix (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Statistical Appendix (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table a\n - Table a (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Table a (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table b\n - Table b (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Table b (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Full Report\n - Full Report (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Full Report (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- DataMapper\n- Previous Issues\n- Blog\n- Press Conference\n- October 2025 Database\n- https://www.imf.org/en/Home\n- Read the Blog\n- Panel Discussion\n- Panel Discussion\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: October 14, 2025", "Global growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026.", "Advanced economies are projected to grow around 1.5 percent.", "Emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow just above 4 percent.", "Global headline inflation is expected to decline further, though it will remain above target in the United States—with risks tilted to the upside—and be subdued elsewhere.", "Near-term forecast is revised up modestly relative to the April 2025 WEO but remains a downward revision relative to pre-policy-shift forecasts.", "Temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025—such as front-loading—are fading.", "Risks are tilted to the downside.", "Prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism, and labor supply shocks could reduce growth.", "Fiscal vulnerabilities and potential financial market corrections could threaten stability.", "Erosion of institutions and pressure on the independence of key economic institutions could undermine sound economic decision making.", "An abrupt repricing of tech stocks could threaten macrofinancial stability.", "Larger-than-expected shocks to labor supply could reduce growth, especially in economies facing aging populations and skill shortages.", "Rising borrowing costs and increased rollover risks for sovereigns could interact with fiscal and financial fragilities.", "Policymakers are urged to restore confidence through credible, transparent, and sustainable policies.", "Trade diplomacy should be paired with macroeconomic adjustment.", "Fiscal buffers should be rebuilt.", "Central bank independence should be preserved.", "Efforts on structural reforms should be redoubled.", "Stronger policy frameworks enhance the implementation and credibility of monetary and fiscal policies.", "Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies", "Chapter 2: Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies?", "Chapter 3: Industrial Policy: Managing Trade-Offs to Promote Growth and Resilience", "**Chapter 1 Data**", "**Chapter 2 Data**", "**Chapter 3 Data**", "**Chapter 1**", "**Chapter 1 Online Annex**", "**Chapter 2**", "**ch2onlineannexes**", "**CHAPTER 3 INDUSTRIAL POLICY: MANAGING TRADE-OFFS TO PROMOTE GROWTH AND RESILIENCE**", "**Ch3onlineannexes**", "**Commodity Special Feature**", "**Executive Summary**", "**Foreword**", "**Statistical Appendix**", "**Table a**", "**Table b**", "**Full Report**", "[DataMapper](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO)", "[Previous Issues](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO)", "[Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2025/10/14/global-economic-outlook-shows-modest-change-amid-policy-shifts-and-complex-forces)", "[Press Conference](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6382735559112)", "[October 2025 Database](https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO)", "[Read the Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2025/10/06/good-policies-and-good-luck-helped-emerging-economies-better-resist-shocks)", "[Panel Discussion](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6382100527112)", "[Panel Discussion](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6381480509112)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Chapter 1 Data", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/data/ch1data.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/data/ch1data.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2 Data", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/data/ch2data.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/data/ch2data.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "Chapter 3 Data", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/data/ch3data.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/data/ch3data.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "Chapter 1", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch1.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch1.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch1.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 1 Online Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch2.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch2.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch2.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "ch2onlineannexes", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch2onlineannexes.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch2onlineannexes.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch2onlineannexes.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "CHAPTER 3 INDUSTRIAL POLICY: MANAGING TRADE-OFFS TO PROMOTE GROWTH AND RESILIENCE", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch3.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch3.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch3.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Ch3onlineannexes", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch3onlineannexes.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch3onlineannexes.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch3onlineannexes.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Commodity Special Feature", "role": "special-feature", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Executive Summary", "role": "executive-summary", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/execsum.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/execsum.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/execsum.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Foreword", "role": "foreword", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/foreword.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/foreword.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/foreword.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Statistical Appendix", "role": "appendix", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/statsappendix.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/statsappendix.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/statsappendix.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Table a", "role": "table", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/tablea.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/tablea.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/tablea.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Table b", "role": "table", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/tableb.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/tableb.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/tableb.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Full Report", "role": "full-report", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/text.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/text.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/text.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025/index.md", "json": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-03T00:17:35.262Z" }