## World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim _World Economic Outlook, October 2025_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: October 14, 2025 --- ### Global outlook and headline projections - Global growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. - Advanced economies are projected to grow around 1.5 percent. - Emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow just above 4 percent. - Global headline inflation is expected to decline further, though it will remain above target in the United States—with risks tilted to the upside—and be subdued elsewhere. - Near-term forecast is revised up modestly relative to the April 2025 WEO but remains a downward revision relative to pre-policy-shift forecasts. - Temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025—such as front-loading—are fading. ### Key risks to the outlook - Risks are tilted to the downside. - Prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism, and labor supply shocks could reduce growth. - Fiscal vulnerabilities and potential financial market corrections could threaten stability. - Erosion of institutions and pressure on the independence of key economic institutions could undermine sound economic decision making. - An abrupt repricing of tech stocks could threaten macrofinancial stability. - Larger-than-expected shocks to labor supply could reduce growth, especially in economies facing aging populations and skill shortages. - Rising borrowing costs and increased rollover risks for sovereigns could interact with fiscal and financial fragilities. ### Policy guidance and cross-cutting recommendations - Policymakers are urged to restore confidence through credible, transparent, and sustainable policies. - Trade diplomacy should be paired with macroeconomic adjustment. - Fiscal buffers should be rebuilt. - Central bank independence should be preserved. - Efforts on structural reforms should be redoubled. - Stronger policy frameworks enhance the implementation and credibility of monetary and fiscal policies. ### Chapter highlights - Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies - Global growth is projected to slow and growth prospects remain dim as the world adjusts to a landscape marked by greater protectionism and fragmentation. - Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. - To navigate a global economy in flux, policymakers should restore confidence through credible, transparent, and sustainable policies. - Chapter 2: Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies? - Emerging markets have shown remarkable resilience to risk-off shocks in recent years. - Favorable external conditions—good luck—contributed to this resilience, while improvements in policy frameworks—good policies—played a critical role. - Improvements in monetary and fiscal policy implementation and credibility have reduced reliance on foreign exchange interventions. - Countries with robust frameworks face easier policy trade-offs and are better positioned to navigate risk-off episodes. - Economies with weaker frameworks risk de-anchoring inflation expectations and larger output losses if monetary tightening is delayed; costly foreign exchange interventions offer only temporary relief in these settings. - Chapter 3: Industrial Policy: Managing Trade-Offs to Promote Growth and Resilience - Countries are increasingly using industrial policy to support strategic sectors and firms, motivated by boosting productivity, reducing reliance on imports, and enhancing resilience. - Industrial policies can help jump-start domestic industries, but efficacy is sensitive to sector-specific characteristics that are hard to determine in advance. - Trade-offs of industrial policy include: higher consumer prices for a prolonged period from onshoring; substantial fiscal cost at a time of elevated debt and constrained public finances; negative cross-sector spillovers; and reduced overall productivity by drawing resources inefficiently away from non-targeted sectors. - Effective industrial policy requires careful targeting and implementation, strong institutions, complementary structural reforms, and sound macroeconomic policy. *Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim* --- ## Content in this bundle - **Chapter 1 Data** - [Chapter 1 Data (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/data/ch1data.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **Chapter 2 Data** - [Chapter 2 Data (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/data/ch2data.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **Chapter 3 Data** - [Chapter 3 Data (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/data/ch3data.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **Chapter 1** - [Chapter 1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 1 Online Annex** - [Chapter 1 Online Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 1 Online Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 2** - [Chapter 2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **ch2onlineannexes** - [ch2onlineannexes (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch2onlineannexes.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [ch2onlineannexes (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch2onlineannexes.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **CHAPTER 3 INDUSTRIAL POLICY: MANAGING TRADE-OFFS TO PROMOTE GROWTH AND RESILIENCE** - [CHAPTER 3 INDUSTRIAL POLICY: MANAGING TRADE-OFFS TO PROMOTE GROWTH AND RESILIENCE (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [CHAPTER 3 INDUSTRIAL POLICY: MANAGING TRADE-OFFS TO PROMOTE GROWTH AND RESILIENCE (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Ch3onlineannexes** - [Ch3onlineannexes (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch3onlineannexes.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Ch3onlineannexes (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/ch3onlineannexes.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Commodity Special Feature** - [Commodity Special Feature (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Commodity Special Feature (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Executive Summary** - [Executive Summary (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/execsum.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Executive Summary (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/execsum.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Foreword** - [Foreword (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/foreword.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Foreword (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/foreword.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Statistical Appendix** - [Statistical Appendix (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/statsappendix.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Statistical Appendix (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/statsappendix.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Table a** - [Table a (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/tablea.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Table a (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/tablea.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Table b** - [Table b (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/tableb.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Table b (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/tableb.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Full Report** - [Full Report (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/text.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Full Report (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/text.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- ## References - [DataMapper](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO) - [Previous Issues](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO) - [Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2025/10/14/global-economic-outlook-shows-modest-change-amid-policy-shifts-and-complex-forces) - [Press Conference](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6382735559112) - [October 2025 Database](https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO) - [Read the Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2025/10/06/good-policies-and-good-luck-helped-emerging-economies-better-resist-shocks) - [Panel Discussion](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6382100527112) - [Panel Discussion](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6381480509112) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025_