{ "title": "World Economic Outlook, April 2026: Global Economy in the Shadow of War", "publication": "World Economic Outlook, April 2026", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026/index.md", "summary": "The latest World Economic Outlook reports slowing global growth and renewed inflationary pressures. Policies need to be agile, carefully manage the trade-offs involved in ramping up defense spending, and lay the foundation for a sustained recovery.", "publishDate": "2026-04-14", "sections": [ { "heading": "Key projections and overview", "content": "- Assuming the conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027.\n- Global headline inflation is projected to rise modestly in 2026 before resuming its decline in 2027.\n- Slowdown in growth and increase in inflation are expected to be particularly pronounced in emerging market and developing economies.\n- The estimates and projections in the April 2026 World Economic Outlook Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix are based on statistical information available through April 1, 2026." }, { "heading": "Downside risks and upside scenarios", "content": "- Downside risks dominating the outlook:\n - A longer or broader conflict.\n - Worsening geopolitical fragmentation.\n - A reassessment of expectations surrounding artificial‑intelligence‑driven productivity.\n - Renewed trade tensions.\n - Elevated public debt and eroding institutional credibility heighten vulnerabilities.\n- Upside possibilities:\n - Activity could be lifted if productivity gains from AI materialize more rapidly.\n - Activity could be lifted if trade tensions ease on a sustained basis." }, { "heading": "Chapter 1 — Global Prospects and Policies (high-level findings)", "content": "- The global economy is disrupted by the outbreak of war in the Middle East, with rising commodity prices, firmer inflation expectations, and tighter financial conditions.\n- Under the assumption of a limited conflict:\n - Global growth: 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027.\n - Global inflation: expected to tick up in 2026 and resume decline in 2027.\n- Pressures are concentrated in emerging market and developing economies, especially commodity importers with preexisting vulnerabilities.\n- Policy guidance: foster adaptability, enhance credibility, and reinforce international cooperation." }, { "heading": "Chapter 2 — Defense Spending: Macroeconomic Consequences and Trade-Offs (findings and magnitudes)", "content": "- Defense spending booms have become more frequent, especially in emerging market and developing economies.\n- In a typical boom:\n - Defense outlays increase by about 2.7 percentage points of GDP over two-and-a-half years.\n - Roughly two-thirds of the increase is financed through deficit.\n- Short-term effects:\n - Defense buildups can boost economic activity (defense spending multipliers are close to 1, on average, but vary widely).\n - Defense buildups also temporarily increase inflation.\n- Medium-term challenges and magnitudes:\n - Fiscal deficits worsen by about 2.6 percentage points of GDP.\n - Public debt increases by about 7 percentage points within three years.\n - External balances deteriorate.\n- Wartime booms are especially costly:\n - Public debt jumps by about 14 percentage points.\n - Social spending falls.\n- Key conditionalities: multipliers and outcomes vary depending on how spending is sustained, financed, allocated, and on the share of imported equipment." }, { "heading": "Chapter 3 — The Macroeconomics of Conflicts and Recovery (findings and policy implications)", "content": "- Conflicts generate large and persistent output losses in economies where fighting occurs, exceeding those from financial crises or severe natural disasters, with nonnegligible spillovers to other countries.\n- Losses trigger acute macroeconomic trade-offs across monetary, fiscal, and external sectors and leave long-lasting scars.\n- Recoveries are slow and uneven and depend critically on sustained peace:\n - Even when peace holds, recoveries remain modest relative to wartime losses.\n - Recovery is led primarily by labor, while capital and productivity stay subdued.\n- Policy implications for recovery:\n - Early macroeconomic stabilization.\n - Debt restructuring where appropriate.\n - International support.\n - Domestic reforms to rebuild institutions.\n - Comprehensive policy packages that jointly reduce uncertainty and rebuild capital stock generate positive externalities for stronger recovery." }, { "heading": "Policy priorities (synthesized from report themes)", "content": "- Foster adaptability in policy frameworks to respond to evolving shocks.\n- Maintain credible monetary and fiscal policy frameworks to anchor expectations.\n- Carefully manage trade-offs when scaling up defense spending to balance short-term demand support against medium-term fiscal, inflationary, and social spending risks.\n- Reinforce international cooperation to mitigate spillovers and support recovery in conflict-affected economies.\n- Prioritize early stabilization, debt solutions, international assistance, and institutional rebuilding in countries experiencing conflict to reduce scarring and support more resilient recoveries.\n\nWorld Economic Outlook, April 2026: Global Economy in the Shadow of War — estimates and projections based on statistical information through April 1, 2026.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICIES\n - CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICIES (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICIES (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- ch1onlineannex\n - ch1onlineannex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - ch1onlineannex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- ch2 - 2.7 percentage points of GDP, with roughly two-thirds\n - ch2 - 2.7 percentage points of GDP, with roughly two-thirds (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - ch2 - 2.7 percentage points of GDP, with roughly two-thirds (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Annex Table 2.1.2. (ch2onlineannex)\n - Annex Table 2.1.2. (ch2onlineannex) (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Annex Table 2.1.2. (ch2onlineannex) (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- ch3\n - ch3 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - ch3 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- CHAPTER 3 THE MACROECONOMICS OF CONFLICTS AND RECOVERY (Online Annex)\n - CHAPTER 3 THE MACROECONOMICS OF CONFLICTS AND RECOVERY (Online Annex) (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - CHAPTER 3 THE MACROECONOMICS OF CONFLICTS AND RECOVERY (Online Annex) (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- commodityspecialfeature\n - commodityspecialfeature (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - commodityspecialfeature (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Dataset overview — ch1data (April 2026 WEO Chapter 1 dataset)\n - Dataset overview — ch1data (April 2026 WEO Chapter 1 dataset) (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Dataset overview — ch1data (April 2026 WEO Chapter 1 dataset) (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- WEO Chapter 2 April 2026\n - WEO Chapter 2 April 2026 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - WEO Chapter 2 April 2026 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 3 April 2026\n - Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 3 April 2026 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 3 April 2026 (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY\n - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- FOREWORD\n - FOREWORD (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - FOREWORD (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- statsappendix - 2026. For 2026 and 2027, these assumptions imply\n - statsappendix - 2026. For 2026 and 2027, these assumptions imply (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - statsappendix - 2026. For 2026 and 2027, these assumptions imply (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- tablea\n - tablea (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - tablea (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- tableb\n - tableb (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - tableb (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War (April 2026) — Preface and Chapters\n - World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War (April 2026) — Preface and Chapters (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War (April 2026) — Preface and Chapters (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Previous Issues\n- DataMapper\n- Blog\n- Press Briefing\n- April 2026 Database\n- Chapters 2 and 3 Blog\n- Panel Discussion\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: April 14, 2026", "Assuming the conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027.", "Global headline inflation is projected to rise modestly in 2026 before resuming its decline in 2027.", "Slowdown in growth and increase in inflation are expected to be particularly pronounced in emerging market and developing economies.", "The estimates and projections in the April 2026 World Economic Outlook Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix are based on statistical information available through April 1, 2026.", "Downside risks dominating the outlook:", "Upside possibilities:", "The global economy is disrupted by the outbreak of war in the Middle East, with rising commodity prices, firmer inflation expectations, and tighter financial conditions.", "Under the assumption of a limited conflict:", "Pressures are concentrated in emerging market and developing economies, especially commodity importers with preexisting vulnerabilities.", "Policy guidance: foster adaptability, enhance credibility, and reinforce international cooperation.", "Defense spending booms have become more frequent, especially in emerging market and developing economies.", "In a typical boom:", "Short-term effects:", "Medium-term challenges and magnitudes:", "Wartime booms are especially costly:", "Key conditionalities: multipliers and outcomes vary depending on how spending is sustained, financed, allocated, and on the share of imported equipment.", "Conflicts generate large and persistent output losses in economies where fighting occurs, exceeding those from financial crises or severe natural disasters, with nonnegligible spillovers to other countries.", "Losses trigger acute macroeconomic trade-offs across monetary, fiscal, and external sectors and leave long-lasting scars.", "Recoveries are slow and uneven and depend critically on sustained peace:", "Policy implications for recovery:", "Foster adaptability in policy frameworks to respond to evolving shocks.", "Maintain credible monetary and fiscal policy frameworks to anchor expectations.", "Carefully manage trade-offs when scaling up defense spending to balance short-term demand support against medium-term fiscal, inflationary, and social spending risks.", "Reinforce international cooperation to mitigate spillovers and support recovery in conflict-affected economies.", "Prioritize early stabilization, debt solutions, international assistance, and institutional rebuilding in countries experiencing conflict to reduce scarring and support more resilient recoveries.", "**CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICIES**", "**ch1onlineannex**", "**ch2 - 2.7 percentage points of GDP, with roughly two-thirds**", "**Annex Table 2.1.2. (ch2onlineannex)**", "**ch3**", "**CHAPTER 3 THE MACROECONOMICS OF CONFLICTS AND RECOVERY (Online Annex)**", "**commodityspecialfeature**", "**Dataset overview — ch1data (April 2026 WEO Chapter 1 dataset)**", "**WEO Chapter 2 April 2026**", "**Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 3 April 2026**", "**EXECUTIVE SUMMARY**", "**FOREWORD**", "**statsappendix - 2026. For 2026 and 2027, these assumptions imply**", "**tablea**", "**tableb**", "**World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War (April 2026) — Preface and Chapters**", "[Previous Issues](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo)", "[DataMapper](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO)", "[Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities)", "[Press Briefing](https://www.imf.org/en/videos/view/6393091659112)", "[April 2026 Database](https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO)", "[Chapters 2 and 3 Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/08/wars-impose-lasting-economic-costs-while-more-defense-spending-means-hard-choices?cid=wp-com-sm26-WEOEA2026001)", "[Panel Discussion](https://www.imf.org/en/videos/view/6392661643112)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "related": [ { "title": "CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICIES", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "ch1onlineannex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "ch2 - 2.7 percentage points of GDP, with roughly two-thirds", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Annex Table 2.1.2. (ch2onlineannex)", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "ch3", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "CHAPTER 3 THE MACROECONOMICS OF CONFLICTS AND RECOVERY (Online Annex)", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "commodityspecialfeature", "role": "special-feature", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Dataset overview — ch1data (April 2026 WEO Chapter 1 dataset)", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch1data.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch1data.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "WEO Chapter 2 April 2026", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch2data.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch2data.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 3 April 2026", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch3data.xlsx", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch3data.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "EXECUTIVE SUMMARY", "role": "executive-summary", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/execsum.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/execsum.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/execsum.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "FOREWORD", "role": "foreword", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/foreword.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/foreword.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/foreword.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "statsappendix - 2026. For 2026 and 2027, these assumptions imply", "role": "appendix", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/statsappendix.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/statsappendix.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/statsappendix.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "tablea", "role": "table", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/tablea.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/tablea.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/tablea.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "tableb", "role": "table", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/tableb.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/tableb.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/tableb.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War (April 2026) — Preface and Chapters", "role": "full-report", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/text.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/text.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/text.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026/index.md", "json": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-22T03:42:47.447Z" }