## World Economic Outlook, April 2026: Global Economy in the Shadow of War _World Economic Outlook, April 2026_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [World Economic Outlook, April 2026: Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: April 14, 2026 --- ### Key projections and overview - Assuming the conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027. - Global headline inflation is projected to rise modestly in 2026 before resuming its decline in 2027. - Slowdown in growth and increase in inflation are expected to be particularly pronounced in emerging market and developing economies. - The estimates and projections in the April 2026 World Economic Outlook Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix are based on statistical information available through April 1, 2026. ### Downside risks and upside scenarios - Downside risks dominating the outlook: - A longer or broader conflict. - Worsening geopolitical fragmentation. - A reassessment of expectations surrounding artificial‑intelligence‑driven productivity. - Renewed trade tensions. - Elevated public debt and eroding institutional credibility heighten vulnerabilities. - Upside possibilities: - Activity could be lifted if productivity gains from AI materialize more rapidly. - Activity could be lifted if trade tensions ease on a sustained basis. ### Chapter 1 — Global Prospects and Policies (high-level findings) - The global economy is disrupted by the outbreak of war in the Middle East, with rising commodity prices, firmer inflation expectations, and tighter financial conditions. - Under the assumption of a limited conflict: - Global growth: 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027. - Global inflation: expected to tick up in 2026 and resume decline in 2027. - Pressures are concentrated in emerging market and developing economies, especially commodity importers with preexisting vulnerabilities. - Policy guidance: foster adaptability, enhance credibility, and reinforce international cooperation. ### Chapter 2 — Defense Spending: Macroeconomic Consequences and Trade-Offs (findings and magnitudes) - Defense spending booms have become more frequent, especially in emerging market and developing economies. - In a typical boom: - Defense outlays increase by about 2.7 percentage points of GDP over two-and-a-half years. - Roughly two-thirds of the increase is financed through deficit. - Short-term effects: - Defense buildups can boost economic activity (defense spending multipliers are close to 1, on average, but vary widely). - Defense buildups also temporarily increase inflation. - Medium-term challenges and magnitudes: - Fiscal deficits worsen by about 2.6 percentage points of GDP. - Public debt increases by about 7 percentage points within three years. - External balances deteriorate. - Wartime booms are especially costly: - Public debt jumps by about 14 percentage points. - Social spending falls. - Key conditionalities: multipliers and outcomes vary depending on how spending is sustained, financed, allocated, and on the share of imported equipment. ### Chapter 3 — The Macroeconomics of Conflicts and Recovery (findings and policy implications) - Conflicts generate large and persistent output losses in economies where fighting occurs, exceeding those from financial crises or severe natural disasters, with nonnegligible spillovers to other countries. - Losses trigger acute macroeconomic trade-offs across monetary, fiscal, and external sectors and leave long-lasting scars. - Recoveries are slow and uneven and depend critically on sustained peace: - Even when peace holds, recoveries remain modest relative to wartime losses. - Recovery is led primarily by labor, while capital and productivity stay subdued. - Policy implications for recovery: - Early macroeconomic stabilization. - Debt restructuring where appropriate. - International support. - Domestic reforms to rebuild institutions. - Comprehensive policy packages that jointly reduce uncertainty and rebuild capital stock generate positive externalities for stronger recovery. ### Policy priorities (synthesized from report themes) - Foster adaptability in policy frameworks to respond to evolving shocks. - Maintain credible monetary and fiscal policy frameworks to anchor expectations. - Carefully manage trade-offs when scaling up defense spending to balance short-term demand support against medium-term fiscal, inflationary, and social spending risks. - Reinforce international cooperation to mitigate spillovers and support recovery in conflict-affected economies. - Prioritize early stabilization, debt solutions, international assistance, and institutional rebuilding in countries experiencing conflict to reduce scarring and support more resilient recoveries. *World Economic Outlook, April 2026: Global Economy in the Shadow of War — estimates and projections based on statistical information through April 1, 2026.* --- ## Content in this bundle - **CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICIES** - [CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICIES (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICIES (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **ch1onlineannex** - [ch1onlineannex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [ch1onlineannex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **ch2 - 2.7 percentage points of GDP, with roughly two-thirds** - [ch2 - 2.7 percentage points of GDP, with roughly two-thirds (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [ch2 - 2.7 percentage points of GDP, with roughly two-thirds (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Annex Table 2.1.2. (ch2onlineannex)** - [Annex Table 2.1.2. (ch2onlineannex) (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Annex Table 2.1.2. (ch2onlineannex) (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **ch3** - [ch3 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [ch3 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **CHAPTER 3 THE MACROECONOMICS OF CONFLICTS AND RECOVERY (Online Annex)** - [CHAPTER 3 THE MACROECONOMICS OF CONFLICTS AND RECOVERY (Online Annex) (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [CHAPTER 3 THE MACROECONOMICS OF CONFLICTS AND RECOVERY (Online Annex) (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **commodityspecialfeature** - [commodityspecialfeature (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [commodityspecialfeature (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/commodityspecialfeature.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Dataset overview — ch1data (April 2026 WEO Chapter 1 dataset)** - [Dataset overview — ch1data (April 2026 WEO Chapter 1 dataset) (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch1data.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **WEO Chapter 2 April 2026** - [WEO Chapter 2 April 2026 (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch2data.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 3 April 2026** - [Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 3 April 2026 (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/data/ch3data.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **EXECUTIVE SUMMARY** - [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/execsum.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/execsum.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **FOREWORD** - [FOREWORD (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/foreword.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [FOREWORD (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/foreword.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **statsappendix - 2026. For 2026 and 2027, these assumptions imply** - [statsappendix - 2026. For 2026 and 2027, these assumptions imply (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/statsappendix.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [statsappendix - 2026. For 2026 and 2027, these assumptions imply (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/statsappendix.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **tablea** - [tablea (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/tablea.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [tablea (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/tablea.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **tableb** - [tableb (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/tableb.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [tableb (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/tableb.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War (April 2026) — Preface and Chapters** - [World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War (April 2026) — Preface and Chapters (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/text.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War (April 2026) — Preface and Chapters (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/text.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- ## References - [Previous Issues](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo) - [DataMapper](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO) - [Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities) - [Press Briefing](https://www.imf.org/en/videos/view/6393091659112) - [April 2026 Database](https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.RES:WEO) - [Chapters 2 and 3 Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/08/wars-impose-lasting-economic-costs-while-more-defense-spending-means-hard-choices?cid=wp-com-sm26-WEOEA2026001) - [Panel Discussion](https://www.imf.org/en/videos/view/6392661643112) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026_