{
  "title": "A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya, 1974–1996",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, July 1, 1999",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/a-dynamic-model-of-inflation-for-kenya-19741996-3159",
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  "summary": "This paper analyses the dynamics of inflation in Kenya during 1974–96, a period characterized by external shocks and internal disequilibria.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Authors and publication",
      "content": "- By Njuguna S. Ndung'u, Dick Durevall\n- July 1, 1999\n- IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 1999/097\n- Issue: 097\n- Volume: 1999\n- Pages: 36\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451852004.001\n- ISBN: 9781451852004\n- ISSN: 1018-5941"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Research scope and context",
      "content": "- Period analyzed: 1974–96\n- Focus: dynamics of inflation in Kenya during a period characterized by external shocks and internal disequilibria\n- Key subject areas: Exchange rates, Foreign exchange, Inflation, International trade, Monetary base, Money, Prices, Real exchange rates, Terms of trade"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Model and methodology",
      "content": "- Developed a parsimonious and empirically constant error correction model (ECM)\n- Employed cointegration techniques (keyword: Cointegration)\n- Emphasized both long-run and short-run determinants of inflation"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Main empirical findings",
      "content": "- Long-run effects on inflation:\n  - Exchange rate\n  - Foreign prices\n  - Terms of trade\n- Short-run effects on inflation:\n  - Money supply\n  - Interest rate\n- Food supply constraints influence the dynamics of inflation (keyword: Food supply)\n- Inertia in inflation dynamics:\n  - Up to 1993, about 40 percent of current inflation was transmitted to the next quarter\n  - After 1993, inertia drops to about 10 percent"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Keywords and technical terms used",
      "content": "- Cointegration\n- Error Correction Model\n- exchange rate\n- Exchange rates\n- Food supply\n- Inertia\n- Inflation\n- inflation expectation\n- inflation inertia\n- Kenya\n- maize-price inflation\n- Monetary base\n- Money demand\n- rate of inflation\n- Real exchange rate\n- Real exchange rates\n- Terms of Trade\n- WP\n\nIMF Working Paper: \"A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya, 1974–1996\" by Njuguna S. Ndung'u and Dick Durevall, July 1, 1999.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya, 1974-1996 - WP/99/97\n  - A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya, 1974-1996 - WP/99/97 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya, 1974-1996 - WP/99/97 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/a-dynamic-model-of-inflation-for-kenya-19741996-3159"
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    "Authors: Njuguna S. Ndung'u, Dick Durevall",
    "Published: July 1, 1999",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451852004.001",
    "By Njuguna S. Ndung'u, Dick Durevall",
    "July 1, 1999",
    "IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 1999/097",
    "Issue: 097",
    "Volume: 1999",
    "Pages: 36",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451852004.001",
    "ISBN: 9781451852004",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Period analyzed: 1974–96",
    "Focus: dynamics of inflation in Kenya during a period characterized by external shocks and internal disequilibria",
    "Key subject areas: Exchange rates, Foreign exchange, Inflation, International trade, Monetary base, Money, Prices, Real exchange rates, Terms of trade",
    "Developed a parsimonious and empirically constant error correction model (ECM)",
    "Employed cointegration techniques (keyword: Cointegration)",
    "Emphasized both long-run and short-run determinants of inflation",
    "Long-run effects on inflation:",
    "Short-run effects on inflation:",
    "Food supply constraints influence the dynamics of inflation (keyword: Food supply)",
    "Inertia in inflation dynamics:",
    "Cointegration",
    "Error Correction Model",
    "exchange rate",
    "Exchange rates",
    "Food supply",
    "Inertia",
    "Inflation",
    "inflation expectation",
    "inflation inertia",
    "Kenya",
    "maize-price inflation",
    "Monetary base",
    "Money demand",
    "rate of inflation",
    "Real exchange rate",
    "Real exchange rates",
    "Terms of Trade",
    "WP",
    "**A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya, 1974-1996 - WP/99/97**"
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