## Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output: Further International Evidence

_IMF Working Papers, December 1, 2002_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output: Further International Evidence](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/common-and-idiosyncratic-components-in-real-output-further-international-evidence-16240)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Francisco d Nadal De Simone
- Published: December 1, 2002
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451875485.001

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### Summary and main findings
- The paper analyzes the characteristics—duration, amplitude, steepness, and cumulative output movements—of the real GDP series of France, Germany, Italy, the rest of the euro area, and the United States using the classical (level) definition of business cycles.
- An index of concordance and its test statistic suggest a great deal of comovement/synchronization between output cycles.
- A dynamic factor model is estimated following the concordance result.
- Output fluctuations are mostly explained by a global common component and an euro area common component.
- Idiosyncratic components also matter, especially for France, the rest of the euro area, and the United States.

### Methodology and analytical approach
- Uses the classical (level) definition of business cycles to characterize real GDP movements by duration, amplitude, steepness, and cumulative output movements.
- Employs an index of concordance and its test statistic to assess comovement/synchronization between output cycles.
- Estimates a dynamic factor model to decompose output fluctuations into common and idiosyncratic components.

### Subjects and keywords (as listed)
- Subjects: Business cycles, Cyclical indicators, Econometric analysis, Economic growth, Factor models, Inflation, Prices, Social security contributions, Taxes
- Keywords: business cycles, common, Cyclical indicators, European and idiosyncratic components, Factor models, FR expansion, FR real GDP series, Global, Inflation, IT output, Italy, pairs FR-IT, REA output, real GDP, Social security contributions, state-space Models, WP

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## Content in this bundle

- **Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output: Further International Evidence - WP/02/229**
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/common-and-idiosyncratic-components-in-real-output-further-international-evidence-16240_