## Demographic Dynamics and the Empirics of Economic Growth

_IMF Working Papers, December 1, 1994_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Demographic Dynamics and the Empirics of Economic Growth](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/demographic-dynamics-and-the-empirics-of-economic-growth-1057)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Michael Sarel
- Published: December 1, 1994
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451926880.001

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### Research objectives and approach
- Examine the effects of demographic dynamics on the measured rates of economic growth.
- Four-step approach:
  - Develop a model of production with labor productivity that varies with age.
  - Use macroeconomic and demographic data to estimate the relative productivity of different age groups.
  - Construct a panel database of effective labor supply to reflect the changing age-structure of the population.
  - Decompose historical measured growth rates into effects of demographic dynamics and into “real” growth rates, net of demographic effects.

### Model of production
- Labor productivity is modeled as age-dependent; the production model explicitly allows productivity to vary across age groups.

### Empirical estimation
- Macroeconomic and demographic data are used to estimate the relative productivity (net productivity, productivity coefficient) of different age groups.
- Keywords associated with the empirical work include: Aging, database result, economic growth, Labor supply, net productivity, panel database, Productivity, productivity coefficient, United Nations data, WP.

### Panel database of effective labor supply
- A panel database of effective labor supply is constructed to reflect changing age-structure of population across countries and over time.

### Growth decomposition
- Historical measured growth rates are decomposed into:
  - Effects attributable to demographic dynamics.
  - “Real” growth rates net of demographic effects.

### Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Aging, Expenditure, Labor, Labor supply, Population and demographics, Production, Productivity, Public expenditure review.
- Keywords: Aging, database result, economic growth, Labor supply, net productivity, panel database, Productivity, productivity coefficient, Public expenditure review, United Nations data, WP.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/demographic-dynamics-and-the-empirics-of-economic-growth-1057_