{
  "title": "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress: A Macro-Micro Empirical Exploration of Some Recent Episodes",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, March 1, 1999",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/determinants-of-ex-ante-banking-system-distress-a-macro-micro-empirical-exploration-of-some-2908",
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  "summary": "This paper empirically analyzes the contribution of microeconomic and macroeconomic factors in five recent episodes of banking system problems in the U.S. Southwest (1986–92), Northeast (1991–92), and California (1992–93); Mexico (1994–95); and Colombia (1982–87).",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Scope and episodes analyzed",
      "content": "- Empirical analysis of the contribution of microeconomic and macroeconomic factors to banking system problems in five episodes:\n  - U.S. Southwest (1986–92)\n  - U.S. Northeast (1991–92)\n  - California (1992–93)\n  - Mexico (1994–95)\n  - Colombia (1982–87)\n- Author: Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo\n- Date: March 1, 1999\n- Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 1999/033"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Core findings",
      "content": "- A low capital equity and reserve coverage of problem loans ratio is identified as a leading indicator of bank distress, signaling a high likelihood of near-term failure.\n- Distress is shown to be a function of the same fundamental macro-micro sources of risk that determine bank failures.\n- Emphasizes that focusing on distress (rather than only on outright failures) allows assessment of the fragility of the banking system before a crisis actually occurs."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key subjects and keywords",
      "content": "- Subjects: Banking; Commercial banks; Credit risk; Distressed institutions; Financial institutions; Financial regulation and supervision; Loans; Nonperforming loans\n- Keywords: Asia and Pacific; bank distress; Banking crisis; Banking sector fragility; Commercial banks; coverage ratio; credit risk; Distressed institutions; equity capital; Global; hazard ratio; Loans; Nonperforming loans; performing loan; survival time; WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp9933\n  - wp9933 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp9933 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/determinants-of-ex-ante-banking-system-distress-a-macro-micro-empirical-exploration-of-some-2908"
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    "Authors: Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo",
    "Published: March 1, 1999",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451845167.001",
    "Empirical analysis of the contribution of microeconomic and macroeconomic factors to banking system problems in five episodes:",
    "Author: Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo",
    "Date: March 1, 1999",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 1999/033",
    "A low capital equity and reserve coverage of problem loans ratio is identified as a leading indicator of bank distress, signaling a high likelihood of near-term failure.",
    "Distress is shown to be a function of the same fundamental macro-micro sources of risk that determine bank failures.",
    "Emphasizes that focusing on distress (rather than only on outright failures) allows assessment of the fragility of the banking system before a crisis actually occurs.",
    "Subjects: Banking; Commercial banks; Credit risk; Distressed institutions; Financial institutions; Financial regulation and supervision; Loans; Nonperforming loans",
    "Keywords: Asia and Pacific; bank distress; Banking crisis; Banking sector fragility; Commercial banks; coverage ratio; credit risk; Distressed institutions; equity capital; Global; hazard ratio; Loans; Nonperforming loans; performing loan; survival time; WP",
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