{
  "title": "Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, October 1, 1997",
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  "summary": "Mozambique’s inflation rate was consistently high until 1995, and then plunged in 1996 to 17 percent from 70 percent in 1994.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Mozambique’s inflation rate was consistently high until 1995, and then plunged in 1996 to 17 percent from 70 percent in 1994.\n- The paper suggests Mozambique’s inflation pattern is a combination of:\n  - a “fundamental” trend set by economic policies,\n  - seasonal behavior that follows closely that of agriculture,\n  - and a collection of irregular events that corresponds mainly to agroclimatic conditions.\n- The empirical results show that the marked tightening of monetary policy in 1996 was the ultimate reason for the control of inflation in 1996, and hence seems to correspond to a change in the “fundamental” trend of inflation that may have long-lasting effects."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Empirical findings and methodology",
      "content": "- Inflation dynamics decomposed into:\n  - fundamental trend driven by economic policy,\n  - seasonal agricultural-driven component,\n  - irregular agroclimatic-driven shocks.\n- Empirical result highlighted:\n  - marked tightening of monetary policy in 1996 as the proximate cause of the 1996 decline in inflation.\n- Methodological and technical terms referenced:\n  - error-correction term, moving average, unobserved components, VAR."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and interpretation",
      "content": "- Tightening monetary policy can shift the “fundamental” trend of inflation with potentially long-lasting effects.\n- Seasonality linked to agriculture and agroclimatic shocks implies that agricultural production and related policies are important for understanding short-run inflation movements."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Agricultural production, Consumer price indexes, Exchange rates, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Monetary base, Prices, Production, Purchasing power parity\n- Keywords: Africa, Agricultural production, Consumer price indexes, error-correction term, Exchange rates, forecasting inflation, Inflation, inflation determination, inflation equation, inflation movement, inflation rate, inflation transmission mechanism, moving average, Purchasing power parity, rand exchange rate, unobserved components, VAR, WP\n\nSource: IMF Working Papers — \"Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique\" by Angel J. Ubide, October 1, 1997.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique - WP/97/145\n  - Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique - WP/97/145 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique - WP/97/145 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/determinants-of-inflation-in-mozambique-2372"
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    "Authors: Angel J. Ubide",
    "Published: October 1, 1997",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451856507.001",
    "Mozambique’s inflation rate was consistently high until 1995, and then plunged in 1996 to 17 percent from 70 percent in 1994.",
    "The paper suggests Mozambique’s inflation pattern is a combination of:",
    "The empirical results show that the marked tightening of monetary policy in 1996 was the ultimate reason for the control of inflation in 1996, and hence seems to correspond to a change in the “fundamental” trend of inflation that may have long-lasting effects.",
    "Inflation dynamics decomposed into:",
    "Empirical result highlighted:",
    "Methodological and technical terms referenced:",
    "Tightening monetary policy can shift the “fundamental” trend of inflation with potentially long-lasting effects.",
    "Seasonality linked to agriculture and agroclimatic shocks implies that agricultural production and related policies are important for understanding short-run inflation movements.",
    "Subject: Agricultural production, Consumer price indexes, Exchange rates, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Monetary base, Prices, Production, Purchasing power parity",
    "Keywords: Africa, Agricultural production, Consumer price indexes, error-correction term, Exchange rates, forecasting inflation, Inflation, inflation determination, inflation equation, inflation movement, inflation rate, inflation transmission mechanism, moving average, Purchasing power parity, rand exchange rate, unobserved components, VAR, WP",
    "**Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique - WP/97/145**"
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