{
  "title": "Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, June 1, 2002",
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  "summary": "A reliable inflation-forecasting model is central for a sound monetary policy framework. In this paper, we study the domestic and international transmission effects on inflation in Indonesia and analyze the possible leading indicators of inflation.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and research scope",
      "content": "- A reliable inflation-forecasting model is central for a sound monetary policy framework.\n- The paper studies the domestic and international transmission effects on inflation in Indonesia and analyzes possible leading indicators of inflation.\n- Main identified variables with significant predictive power for inflation in Indonesia:\n  - exchange rate\n  - foreign inflation\n  - monetary growth"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings and substantive conclusions",
      "content": "- The exchange rate is identified as a primary predictor of Indonesian inflation.\n- Foreign inflation exerts a measurable transmission effect on domestic inflation.\n- Monetary growth (monetary base/money) shows significant predictive power for inflation dynamics.\n- The analysis focuses on consumer price indexes and consumer price inflation as the target variables."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Consumer price indexes, Consumer prices, Exchange rate modelling, Exchange rates, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Monetary base, Money, Prices\n- Keywords: consumer price index, Consumer price indexes, consumer price inflation, Consumer prices, exchange rate, Exchange rates, Indonesia, Inflation, inflation determinant, inflation effect, inflation forecasting, inflation index, inflation model, inflation process, Monetary base, WP"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Access and formats",
      "content": "- Format on landing page: Download PDF; More Formats on IMF eLibrary; Order a Print Copy\n- Citation preview (Chicago): Uma Ramakrishnan, and Athanasios Vamvakidis. \"Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia\", IMF Working Papers 2002, 111 (2002), accessed 9/17/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451853483.001"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Disclaimer",
      "content": "- This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.\n\nSource: IMF Working Paper — \"Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia\", Working Paper No. 2002/111, June 1, 2002.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia - WP/02/111\n  - Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia - WP/02/111 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia - WP/02/111 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/forecasting-inflation-in-indonesia-15850"
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    "Authors: Uma Ramakrishnan, Athanasios Vamvakidis",
    "Published: June 1, 2002",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451853483.001",
    "A reliable inflation-forecasting model is central for a sound monetary policy framework.",
    "The paper studies the domestic and international transmission effects on inflation in Indonesia and analyzes possible leading indicators of inflation.",
    "Main identified variables with significant predictive power for inflation in Indonesia:",
    "The exchange rate is identified as a primary predictor of Indonesian inflation.",
    "Foreign inflation exerts a measurable transmission effect on domestic inflation.",
    "Monetary growth (monetary base/money) shows significant predictive power for inflation dynamics.",
    "The analysis focuses on consumer price indexes and consumer price inflation as the target variables.",
    "Subject: Consumer price indexes, Consumer prices, Exchange rate modelling, Exchange rates, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Monetary base, Money, Prices",
    "Keywords: consumer price index, Consumer price indexes, consumer price inflation, Consumer prices, exchange rate, Exchange rates, Indonesia, Inflation, inflation determinant, inflation effect, inflation forecasting, inflation index, inflation model, inflation process, Monetary base, WP",
    "Format on landing page: Download PDF; More Formats on IMF eLibrary; Order a Print Copy",
    "Citation preview (Chicago): Uma Ramakrishnan, and Athanasios Vamvakidis. \"Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia\", IMF Working Papers 2002, 111 (2002), accessed 9/17/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451853483.001",
    "This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.",
    "**Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia - WP/02/111**"
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