{
  "title": "How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts: Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, April 1, 2000",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/how-accurate-are-private-sector-forecasts-cross-country-evidence-from-consensus-forecasts-of-3543",
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  "summary": "This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions?",
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      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998.\n- Author: Prakash Loungani\n- Date: April 1, 2000\n- Two key results emerge:\n  - First, the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.\n  - Second, there is high degree of similarity between private forecasts and those of international organizations."
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      "heading": "Research questions",
      "content": "- The paper addresses five questions:\n  - (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries?\n  - (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions?\n  - (3) Are forecasts efficient and unbiased?\n  - (4) How does private sector performance compare with that of international organizations?\n  - (5) Is forecaster discord a reliable predictor of forecast accuracy?"
    },
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      "heading": "Findings and insights",
      "content": "- Forecast performance is evaluated for industrialized and developing country samples over 1989 to 1998.\n- Recession prediction:\n  - The record of failure to predict recessions is described as \"virtually unblemished.\"\n- Comparison with international organizations:\n  - There is a high degree of similarity between private forecasts and those of international organizations.\n- Other thematic areas covered (as listed in subject/keywords) include:\n  - Balance of payments, Economic growth, Economic recession, GDP forecasting, Income inequality, National accounts, Private capital flows, Production, Production growth, Tax incentives.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp0077\n  - wp0077 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp0077 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/how-accurate-are-private-sector-forecasts-cross-country-evidence-from-consensus-forecasts-of-3543"
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    "Authors: Prakash Loungani",
    "Published: April 1, 2000",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451849981.001",
    "This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998.",
    "Author: Prakash Loungani",
    "Date: April 1, 2000",
    "Two key results emerge:",
    "The paper addresses five questions:",
    "Forecast performance is evaluated for industrialized and developing country samples over 1989 to 1998.",
    "Recession prediction:",
    "Comparison with international organizations:",
    "Other thematic areas covered (as listed in subject/keywords) include:",
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