## How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts: Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth

_IMF Working Papers, April 1, 2000_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts: Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/how-accurate-are-private-sector-forecasts-cross-country-evidence-from-consensus-forecasts-of-3543)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/how-accurate-are-private-sector-forecasts-cross-country-evidence-from-consensus-forecasts-of-3543/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/how-accurate-are-private-sector-forecasts-cross-country-evidence-from-consensus-forecasts-of-3543/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/how-accurate-are-private-sector-forecasts-cross-country-evidence-from-consensus-forecasts-of-3543/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Prakash Loungani
- Published: April 1, 2000
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451849981.001

---

### Summary
- This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998.
- Author: Prakash Loungani
- Date: April 1, 2000
- Two key results emerge:
  - First, the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.
  - Second, there is high degree of similarity between private forecasts and those of international organizations.

### Research questions
- The paper addresses five questions:
  - (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries?
  - (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions?
  - (3) Are forecasts efficient and unbiased?
  - (4) How does private sector performance compare with that of international organizations?
  - (5) Is forecaster discord a reliable predictor of forecast accuracy?

### Findings and insights
- Forecast performance is evaluated for industrialized and developing country samples over 1989 to 1998.
- Recession prediction:
  - The record of failure to predict recessions is described as "virtually unblemished."
- Comparison with international organizations:
  - There is a high degree of similarity between private forecasts and those of international organizations.
- Other thematic areas covered (as listed in subject/keywords) include:
  - Balance of payments, Economic growth, Economic recession, GDP forecasting, Income inequality, National accounts, Private capital flows, Production, Production growth, Tax incentives.

---

## Content in this bundle

- **_wp0077**
  - [_wp0077 (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000/_wp0077.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [_wp0077 (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000/_wp0077.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/how-accurate-are-private-sector-forecasts-cross-country-evidence-from-consensus-forecasts-of-3543_