## Improving the Estimation Methodology of Monthly Data in Direction of Trade Statistics

_IMF Working Papers, December 1, 1994_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Xiaoning Gong
- Published: December 1, 1994
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451927467.001

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### Summary and purpose
- The quality of the estimated data in DOTS depends on the availability and accuracy of direction of trade reports and the estimation methodology.
- Because of the low coverage of monthly reporting, the estimating procedure plays a role of increased importance.
- The study identifies two deficiencies in current DOTS estimation methodology and proposes improvements to increase accuracy.

### Identified deficiencies in current DOTS estimation methodology
- The information on total trade in IFS is not efficiently used.
- The assumed uniform 10 percent CIF/FOB factor is inappropriate.

### Proposed improvements and recommendations
- Allocate IFS total trade, when available, according to the shares of total trade derived from partner data.
- Replace the uniform 10 percent CIF/FOB factors with adjustment factors derived from historical data.

### Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Direction of trade, Exports, Imports, International trade, Trade balance
- Keywords: correlation coefficient, coverage ratio, data, Direction of trade, estimation methodology, Exports, Imports, trade, Trade balance, trade data, trade statistics, trade structure, WP

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/improving-the-estimation-methodology-of-monthly-data-in-direction-of-trade-statistics-1325_