{
  "title": "Indicators of Fiscal Sustainability",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, January 1, 1991",
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  "summary": "This paper assesses the usefulness of summary measures of fiscal sustainability for the purpose of multilateral surveillance. An overview of the main conceptual issues is first presented.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and purpose",
      "content": "- Assesses the usefulness of summary measures of fiscal sustainability for the purpose of multilateral surveillance.\n- Presents an overview of the main conceptual issues underlying fiscal sustainability measurement.\n- Evaluates strengths and weaknesses of summary measures in the context of their recent application to industrial countries by the OECD and the Fund."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Summary measures highlight the inadequacy of using trends in public debt ratios alone to assess sustainability.\n- The measures are subject to a number of important caveats that limit their reliability and interpretation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Major caveats and sensitivities",
      "content": "- Sensitivity to the discount rate.\n- Sensitivity to time paths of government expenditures.\n- Sensitivity to private sector behavior.\n- Implication: conclusions based solely on summary measures or debt-ratio trends can be misleading without careful attention to underlying assumptions."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Conceptual issues emphasized",
      "content": "- Importance of present discounted value approaches and government budget constraints.\n- Relevance of real interest rates and the public debt-to-GDP ratio for assessing fiscal sustainability.\n- Consideration of debt stabilization and risks such as debt repudiation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Context of application",
      "content": "- Recent applications analyzed: OECD and IMF assessments of industrial countries.\n- The paper demonstrates how different assumptions and methodologies can materially affect sustainability indicators and policy inferences."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords",
      "content": "- Subjects: Expenditure, Financial services, Fiscal policy, Fiscal sustainability, Public debt, Real interest rates\n- Keywords: budget constraint, debt repudiation, debt stabilization, fiscal policy sustainability, Fiscal sustainability, GDP, Global, government solvency, present discounted value, public debt-to-GDP ratio, Real interest rates, stock ratio, WP\n\nIMF Working Paper: \"Indicators of Fiscal Sustainability\" by Jocelyn Horne, Working Paper No. 1991/005 (January 1, 1991).\n\n---\n\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/indicators-of-fiscal-sustainability-882"
    }
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    "Authors: Jocelyn Horne",
    "Published: January 1, 1991",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451842081.001",
    "Assesses the usefulness of summary measures of fiscal sustainability for the purpose of multilateral surveillance.",
    "Presents an overview of the main conceptual issues underlying fiscal sustainability measurement.",
    "Evaluates strengths and weaknesses of summary measures in the context of their recent application to industrial countries by the OECD and the Fund.",
    "Summary measures highlight the inadequacy of using trends in public debt ratios alone to assess sustainability.",
    "The measures are subject to a number of important caveats that limit their reliability and interpretation.",
    "Sensitivity to the discount rate.",
    "Sensitivity to time paths of government expenditures.",
    "Sensitivity to private sector behavior.",
    "Implication: conclusions based solely on summary measures or debt-ratio trends can be misleading without careful attention to underlying assumptions.",
    "Importance of present discounted value approaches and government budget constraints.",
    "Relevance of real interest rates and the public debt-to-GDP ratio for assessing fiscal sustainability.",
    "Consideration of debt stabilization and risks such as debt repudiation.",
    "Recent applications analyzed: OECD and IMF assessments of industrial countries.",
    "The paper demonstrates how different assumptions and methodologies can materially affect sustainability indicators and policy inferences.",
    "Subjects: Expenditure, Financial services, Fiscal policy, Fiscal sustainability, Public debt, Real interest rates",
    "Keywords: budget constraint, debt repudiation, debt stabilization, fiscal policy sustainability, Fiscal sustainability, GDP, Global, government solvency, present discounted value, public debt-to-GDP ratio, Real interest rates, stock ratio, WP"
  ],
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