{
  "title": "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, November 1, 2003",
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  "summary": "We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota.",
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    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Develops an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises.\n- Defines a country to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota.\n- Uses logit and binary recursive tree analysis to identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance.\n- The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Crisis definition:\n  - Default classification by Standard & Poor's.\n  - Access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota.\n- Analytical techniques:\n  - Logit analysis.\n  - Binary recursive tree analysis.\n- Prediction horizon:\n  - One year in advance."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings and statistics",
      "content": "- Predictive performance:\n  - Logit model: predicts 74 percent of all crises entries; sends few false alarms.\n  - Recursive tree: predicts 89 percent of all crises entries; sends more false alarms.\n- Page count: 41 pages.\n- Publication identifiers:\n  - Volume: 2003.\n  - Issue: 221.\n  - Series: Working Paper No. 2003/221.\n  - DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451875256.001.\n  - Stock No: WPIEA2212003.\n  - ISBN: 9781451875256.\n  - ISSN: 1018-5941."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords",
      "content": "- Subjects: Debt default, Early warning systems, External debt, Financial crises, Public debt.\n- Keywords include: Africa, crises episode, crisis definition, crisis entry, crisis exit, crisis probability, currency crisis, debt crises episode, debt crisis, Debt default, debt-crisis entry, debt-crisis episode, debt-crisis event, debt-crisis indicator, debt-servicing difficulties, debt-servicing obligation, debt-servicing pressure, Early warning systems, Early-warning system, probability rise, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, WP.\n\nImplied source: \"Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises\", Axel Schimmelpfennig, Nouriel Roubini, Paolo Manasse, November 1, 2003, IMF Working Papers 2003, 221 (2003).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Wp03221\n  - Wp03221 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Wp03221 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/predicting-sovereign-debt-crises-16951"
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    "Authors: Axel Schimmelpfennig, Nouriel Roubini, Paolo Manasse",
    "Published: November 1, 2003",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451875256.001",
    "Develops an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises.",
    "Defines a country to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota.",
    "Uses logit and binary recursive tree analysis to identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance.",
    "The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms.",
    "Crisis definition:",
    "Analytical techniques:",
    "Prediction horizon:",
    "Predictive performance:",
    "Page count: 41 pages.",
    "Publication identifiers:",
    "Subjects: Debt default, Early warning systems, External debt, Financial crises, Public debt.",
    "Keywords include: Africa, crises episode, crisis definition, crisis entry, crisis exit, crisis probability, currency crisis, debt crises episode, debt crisis, Debt default, debt-crisis entry, debt-crisis episode, debt-crisis event, debt-crisis indicator, debt-servicing difficulties, debt-servicing obligation, debt-servicing pressure, Early warning systems, Early-warning system, probability rise, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, WP.",
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