{
  "title": "Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, May 1, 2000",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/stock-returns-and-output-growth-in-emerging-and-advanced-economies-3571",
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  "summary": "This paper studies the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns in a panel of emerging market economies and advanced economies. It finds that the correlation is as strong in emerging market economies as in advanced economies.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary findings",
      "content": "- The paper studies the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns in a panel of emerging market economies and advanced economies.\n- The correlation is as strong in emerging market economies as in advanced economies.\n- Asset prices therefore contain valuable information to forecast output also in emerging market economies.\n- The strength of the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns is significantly related to a number of stock market characteristics, including:\n  - the number of listed domestic companies and initial public offerings,\n  - a high market capitalization to GDP ratio,\n  - English legal origin."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Emerging and frontier financial markets; Financial institutions; Financial markets; Market capitalization; Production; Production growth; Stock markets; Stocks\n- Keywords: Africa; broad money growth; Emerging and frontier financial markets; emerging markets; emerging markets Factbook; Leading indicators; Market capitalization; narrow money; output growth; Production growth; returns-growth association; stock; stock markets; stock return; Stocks; WP"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Research implications",
      "content": "- Asset prices (lagged stock returns) can serve as leading indicators for output growth forecasting in both emerging and advanced economies.\n- Cross-country variation in the predictive strength of stock returns is associated with observable stock market features (listed companies, IPO activity) and structural characteristics (market capitalization to GDP, legal origin).\n\nSource: IMF Working Paper \"Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies\", Paolo Mauro, May 1, 2000.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies - WP/00/89\n  - Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies - WP/00/89 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies - WP/00/89 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/stock-returns-and-output-growth-in-emerging-and-advanced-economies-3571"
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    "Authors: Paolo Mauro",
    "Published: May 1, 2000",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451851274.001",
    "The paper studies the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns in a panel of emerging market economies and advanced economies.",
    "The correlation is as strong in emerging market economies as in advanced economies.",
    "Asset prices therefore contain valuable information to forecast output also in emerging market economies.",
    "The strength of the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns is significantly related to a number of stock market characteristics, including:",
    "Subject: Emerging and frontier financial markets; Financial institutions; Financial markets; Market capitalization; Production; Production growth; Stock markets; Stocks",
    "Keywords: Africa; broad money growth; Emerging and frontier financial markets; emerging markets; emerging markets Factbook; Leading indicators; Market capitalization; narrow money; output growth; Production growth; returns-growth association; stock; stock markets; stock return; Stocks; WP",
    "Asset prices (lagged stock returns) can serve as leading indicators for output growth forecasting in both emerging and advanced economies.",
    "Cross-country variation in the predictive strength of stock returns is associated with observable stock market features (listed companies, IPO activity) and structural characteristics (market capitalization to GDP, legal origin).",
    "**Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies - WP/00/89**"
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