{
  "title": "Supply Pressure and the Export-Import Performance in the Japan-U.S. Bilateral Trade",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, May 1, 1994",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/supply-pressure-and-the-export-import-performance-in-the-japan-u-s-1187",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/supply-pressure-and-the-export-import-performance-in-the-japan-u-s-1187",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/supply-pressure-and-the-export-import-performance-in-the-japan-u-s-1187/index.md",
  "summary": "The paper examines the effects of the supply pressure of the exports in the Japan-U.S. bilateral trade. A simultaneous equation approach with a Almon lag structure is adopted. Two factors of supply pressure, i.e.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Examines effects of the supply pressure of exports in the Japan-U.S. bilateral trade.\n- Adopts a simultaneous equation approach with an Almon lag structure.\n- Specifies two factors of supply pressure: full-employment capacity and inventory.\n- Estimates positively-sloped export supply functions with these two shift factors.\n- Finds capacity is positively correlated with exports; inventory is often negatively correlated.\n- Finds export supply pressure is much stronger in Japan’s exports than in the U.S. exports.\n- Finds supply pressure often affects exports with a lag structure spreading over twelve quarters."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Model: simultaneous equation approach.\n- Lag specification: Almon lag structure.\n- Supply pressure factors specified as shift factors in export supply functions:\n  - Full-employment capacity.\n  - Inventory."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Findings and Analysis",
      "content": "- Export supply functions estimated are positively sloped when including full-employment capacity and inventory as shift factors.\n- Full-employment capacity:\n  - Positively correlated with exports.\n- Inventory:\n  - Often negatively correlated with exports.\n- Cross-country comparison:\n  - Export supply pressure is much stronger in Japan’s exports than in U.S. exports.\n- Dynamic effects:\n  - Supply pressure impacts exports with effects distributed across twelve quarters.\n\n---\n\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/supply-pressure-and-the-export-import-performance-in-the-japan-u-s-1187"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/supply-pressure-and-the-export-import-performance-in-the-japan-u-s-1187/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/supply-pressure-and-the-export-import-performance-in-the-japan-u-s-1187/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/supply-pressure-and-the-export-import-performance-in-the-japan-u-s-1187/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Yusuke Onitsuka",
    "Published: May 1, 1994",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451847321.001",
    "Examines effects of the supply pressure of exports in the Japan-U.S. bilateral trade.",
    "Adopts a simultaneous equation approach with an Almon lag structure.",
    "Specifies two factors of supply pressure: full-employment capacity and inventory.",
    "Estimates positively-sloped export supply functions with these two shift factors.",
    "Finds capacity is positively correlated with exports; inventory is often negatively correlated.",
    "Finds export supply pressure is much stronger in Japan’s exports than in the U.S. exports.",
    "Finds supply pressure often affects exports with a lag structure spreading over twelve quarters.",
    "Model: simultaneous equation approach.",
    "Lag specification: Almon lag structure.",
    "Supply pressure factors specified as shift factors in export supply functions:",
    "Export supply functions estimated are positively sloped when including full-employment capacity and inventory as shift factors.",
    "Full-employment capacity:",
    "Inventory:",
    "Cross-country comparison:",
    "Dynamic effects:"
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/supply-pressure-and-the-export-import-performance-in-the-japan-u-s-1187/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/supply-pressure-and-the-export-import-performance-in-the-japan-u-s-1187/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/supply-pressure-and-the-export-import-performance-in-the-japan-u-s-1187/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-17T07:35:56.447Z"
}