{
  "title": "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, May 1, 2001",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/the-long-run-behavior-of-commodity-prices-small-trends-and-big-variability-15096",
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  "summary": "Using the longest dataset publicly available (The Economist's index of industrial commodity prices), we analyze the behavior of real commodity prices over the period 1862-99, and have two main findings. First, while there has been a downward trend in real commodity prices of 1.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and main findings",
      "content": "- Using The Economist's index of industrial commodity prices (the longest dataset publicly available), the paper analyzes real commodity prices over the period 1862-99.\n- Two main findings:\n  - There has been a downward trend in real commodity prices of 1.3 percent per year over the last 140 years.\n  - There is evidence of a ratcheting up in the variability of price movements:\n    - The amplitude of price movements increased in the early 1900s.\n    - The frequency of large price movements increased after the collapse of the Bretton Woods regime of fixed exchange rates in the early 1970s.\n- Conclusion: While a downward trend exists, it is small and completely dominated by the variability of prices, making the trend of little practical policy relevance."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Data, period, and scope",
      "content": "- Dataset: The Economist's index of industrial commodity prices (described as the longest dataset publicly available).\n- Sample period: 1862-99.\n- Focus: Behavior of real commodity prices; amplitude and frequency of price movements across long historical periods."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics and temporal markers",
      "content": "- Downward trend: 1.3 percent per year.\n- Historical periods noted:\n  - Early 1900s: increased amplitude of price movements.\n  - Early 1970s: increased frequency of large price movements following the collapse of the Bretton Woods regime.\n- Time horizon referenced for the trend: \"over the last 140 years.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject classification and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject areas: Commodities, Commodity price fluctuations, Commodity price indexes, Commodity prices, Exchange rate arrangements, Foreign exchange, Prices.\n- Keywords include: commodity price; Commodity price fluctuations; Commodity price indexes; commodity-price cycle; commodity-price data; cycles; Exchange rate arrangements; price index; price movement; price variability; price volatility; stabilisation scheme; trends; variability; WP.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices:  Small Trends and Big Variability - WP/01/68\n  - The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices:  Small Trends and Big Variability - WP/01/68 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices:  Small Trends and Big Variability - WP/01/68 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/the-long-run-behavior-of-commodity-prices-small-trends-and-big-variability-15096"
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    "Authors: Paul Cashin, C. John McDermott",
    "Published: May 1, 2001",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451848991.001",
    "Using The Economist's index of industrial commodity prices (the longest dataset publicly available), the paper analyzes real commodity prices over the period 1862-99.",
    "Two main findings:",
    "Conclusion: While a downward trend exists, it is small and completely dominated by the variability of prices, making the trend of little practical policy relevance.",
    "Dataset: The Economist's index of industrial commodity prices (described as the longest dataset publicly available).",
    "Sample period: 1862-99.",
    "Focus: Behavior of real commodity prices; amplitude and frequency of price movements across long historical periods.",
    "Downward trend: 1.3 percent per year.",
    "Historical periods noted:",
    "Time horizon referenced for the trend: \"over the last 140 years.\"",
    "Subject areas: Commodities, Commodity price fluctuations, Commodity price indexes, Commodity prices, Exchange rate arrangements, Foreign exchange, Prices.",
    "Keywords include: commodity price; Commodity price fluctuations; Commodity price indexes; commodity-price cycle; commodity-price data; cycles; Exchange rate arrangements; price index; price movement; price variability; price volatility; stabilisation scheme; trends; variability; WP.",
    "**The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices:  Small Trends and Big Variability - WP/01/68**"
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