{
  "title": "What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India?",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, October 1, 2000",
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  "summary": "Did real overvaluation contribute to the 1991 currency crisis in India? This paper seeks an answer by constructing the equilibrium real exchange rate, using an error correction model and a technique developed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995).",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and main findings",
      "content": "- The paper asks: Did real overvaluation contribute to the 1991 currency crisis in India?\n- Results are affirmative that real overvaluation contributed to the crisis.\n- Evidence indicates that current account deficits and investor confidence also played significant roles in the sharp exchange rate depreciation.\n- The Error Correction Model (ECM) constructed to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate is supported by superior out-of-sample forecast performance versus a random walk model."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- The equilibrium real exchange rate is constructed using an error correction model (ECM).\n- The paper applies a technique developed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords (as listed)",
      "content": "- Subject: Balance of payments, Current account, Current account deficits, Exchange rates, Foreign exchange, Real effective exchange rates, Real exchange rates\n- Keywords: Currency Crisis, Current account, Current account deficits, equilibrium exchange rate, Error Correction Model, exchange rate, exchange rate depreciation, exchange rate misalignment, Exchange rates, Gonzalo-Granger decomposition, India, Indian rupee, Middle East, price level, Real effective exchange rates, Real exchange rates, terms of trade, widening current account imbalance, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India? - WP/00/157\n  - What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India? - WP/00/157 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India? - WP/00/157 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/what-caused-the-1991-currency-crisis-in-india-3794"
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    "Authors: Sweta Chaman Saxena, Valerie Cerra",
    "Published: October 1, 2000",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451857481.001",
    "The paper asks: Did real overvaluation contribute to the 1991 currency crisis in India?",
    "Results are affirmative that real overvaluation contributed to the crisis.",
    "Evidence indicates that current account deficits and investor confidence also played significant roles in the sharp exchange rate depreciation.",
    "The Error Correction Model (ECM) constructed to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate is supported by superior out-of-sample forecast performance versus a random walk model.",
    "The equilibrium real exchange rate is constructed using an error correction model (ECM).",
    "The paper applies a technique developed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995).",
    "Subject: Balance of payments, Current account, Current account deficits, Exchange rates, Foreign exchange, Real effective exchange rates, Real exchange rates",
    "Keywords: Currency Crisis, Current account, Current account deficits, equilibrium exchange rate, Error Correction Model, exchange rate, exchange rate depreciation, exchange rate misalignment, Exchange rates, Gonzalo-Granger decomposition, India, Indian rupee, Middle East, price level, Real effective exchange rates, Real exchange rates, terms of trade, widening current account imbalance, WP",
    "**What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India? - WP/00/157**"
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