{
  "title": "A Financial Conditions Index for Poland",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, December 19, 2013",
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  "summary": "This paper constructs a financial conditions index for Poland to explore the link between financial conditions and real economic activity. The index in constructed by applying two complementary approaches—factor analysis and vector auto-regression approach.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- This paper constructs a financial conditions index (FCI) for Poland to explore the link between financial conditions and real economic activity.\n- The index is constructed by applying two complementary approaches—factor analysis and vector auto-regression (VAR).\n- The FCI is evaluated against a composite leading indicator (CLI) developed by the OECD.\n- Key empirical result: the FCI is highly correlated with GDP growth, attesting to the importance of the financial sector in Poland’s economy.\n- Forecast performance: in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting exercises indicate that the FCI can outperform the CLI in predicting near-term GDP growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Approaches used:\n  - Factor analysis (factor FCI)\n  - Vector autoregression (VAR FCI)\n- Comparison benchmark:\n  - Composite leading indicator (CLI) developed by the OECD"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Findings and Interpretation",
      "content": "- The FCI shows a high correlation with GDP growth in Poland.\n- The financial sector plays an important role in influencing real economic activity in Poland.\n- Forecasting exercises (both in-sample and out-of-sample) show the FCI can outperform the OECD CLI for near-term GDP growth prediction."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and Keywords",
      "content": "- Subjects:\n  - Bond yields\n  - Econometric analysis\n  - Financial conditions index\n  - Financial institutions\n  - Financial sector policy and analysis\n  - Loans\n  - Sovereign bonds\n  - Vector autoregression\n  - Yield curve\n- Keywords:\n  - Bond yields\n  - constructed FCI\n  - Europe\n  - factor analysis\n  - factor FCI\n  - FCI weight\n  - Financial conditions index\n  - forecasting property\n  - Global\n  - lending\n  - lending standard\n  - Loans\n  - Poland\n  - rate\n  - Sovereign bonds\n  - VAR FCI\n  - vector auto-regression\n  - Vector autoregression\n  - WIBOR\n  - WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp13252\n  - wp13252 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp13252 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/a-financial-conditions-index-for-poland-41149"
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    "Authors: Giang Ho, Miss Yinqiu Lu",
    "Published: December 19, 2013",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475540642.001",
    "This paper constructs a financial conditions index (FCI) for Poland to explore the link between financial conditions and real economic activity.",
    "The index is constructed by applying two complementary approaches—factor analysis and vector auto-regression (VAR).",
    "The FCI is evaluated against a composite leading indicator (CLI) developed by the OECD.",
    "Key empirical result: the FCI is highly correlated with GDP growth, attesting to the importance of the financial sector in Poland’s economy.",
    "Forecast performance: in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting exercises indicate that the FCI can outperform the CLI in predicting near-term GDP growth.",
    "Approaches used:",
    "Comparison benchmark:",
    "The FCI shows a high correlation with GDP growth in Poland.",
    "The financial sector plays an important role in influencing real economic activity in Poland.",
    "Forecasting exercises (both in-sample and out-of-sample) show the FCI can outperform the OECD CLI for near-term GDP growth prediction.",
    "Subjects:",
    "Keywords:",
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