{
  "title": "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, December 1, 2008",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/a-small-quarterly-projection-model-of-the-us-economy-22502",
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  "summary": "This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Objective and Scope",
      "content": "- First paper in a series to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM).\n- GPM project aim: improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages.\n- This paper: estimates a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which the authors state \"provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.\"\n- Modeling strategy:\n  - Develop a benchmark model without financial-real linkages.\n  - Introduce financial-real linkages into the model.\n  - Compare results with and without these linkages."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Themes, Subjects, and Keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Central bank policy rate, Inflation, Output gap, Potential output, Real interest rates\n- Keywords: interest rate, WP"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Authors and Publication",
      "content": "- By Igor Ermolaev, Michel Juillard, Ioan Carabenciov, Charles Freedman, Douglas Laxton, Ondrej Kamenik, Dmitry Korshunov\n- December 1, 2008"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Summary Findings and Analytical Focus",
      "content": "- The paper emphasizes the estimation of a small quarterly projection model for the U.S. using Bayesian estimation to ensure plausible dynamics and forecasting properties.\n- Comparative analysis centers on model performance and implications when financial-real linkages are absent versus when they are included.\n\nIMF Working Paper: \"A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy\" (Working Paper No. 2008/278), December 1, 2008.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp08278\n  - wp08278 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp08278 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/a-small-quarterly-projection-model-of-the-us-economy-22502"
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    "Authors: Igor Ermolaev, Michel Juillard, Ioan Carabenciov, Charles Freedman, Douglas Laxton, Ondrej Kamenik, Dmitry Korshunov",
    "Published: December 1, 2008",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451871364.001",
    "First paper in a series to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM).",
    "GPM project aim: improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages.",
    "This paper: estimates a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy.",
    "The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which the authors state \"provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.\"",
    "Modeling strategy:",
    "Subject: Central bank policy rate, Inflation, Output gap, Potential output, Real interest rates",
    "Keywords: interest rate, WP",
    "By Igor Ermolaev, Michel Juillard, Ioan Carabenciov, Charles Freedman, Douglas Laxton, Ondrej Kamenik, Dmitry Korshunov",
    "December 1, 2008",
    "The paper emphasizes the estimation of a small quarterly projection model for the U.S. using Bayesian estimation to ensure plausible dynamics and forecasting properties.",
    "Comparative analysis centers on model performance and implications when financial-real linkages are absent versus when they are included.",
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