## A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy

_IMF Working Papers, December 1, 2008_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/a-small-quarterly-projection-model-of-the-us-economy-22502)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Igor Ermolaev, Michel Juillard, Ioan Carabenciov, Charles Freedman, Douglas Laxton, Ondrej Kamenik, Dmitry Korshunov
- Published: December 1, 2008
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451871364.001

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### Objective and Scope
- First paper in a series to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM).
- GPM project aim: improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages.
- This paper: estimates a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy.

### Methodology
- The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which the authors state "provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties."
- Modeling strategy:
  - Develop a benchmark model without financial-real linkages.
  - Introduce financial-real linkages into the model.
  - Compare results with and without these linkages.

### Key Themes, Subjects, and Keywords
- Subject: Central bank policy rate, Inflation, Output gap, Potential output, Real interest rates
- Keywords: interest rate, WP

### Authors and Publication
- By Igor Ermolaev, Michel Juillard, Ioan Carabenciov, Charles Freedman, Douglas Laxton, Ondrej Kamenik, Dmitry Korshunov
- December 1, 2008

### Summary Findings and Analytical Focus
- The paper emphasizes the estimation of a small quarterly projection model for the U.S. using Bayesian estimation to ensure plausible dynamics and forecasting properties.
- Comparative analysis centers on model performance and implications when financial-real linkages are absent versus when they are included.

*IMF Working Paper: "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy" (Working Paper No. 2008/278), December 1, 2008.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/a-small-quarterly-projection-model-of-the-us-economy-22502_