{
  "title": "A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, January 26, 2015",
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  "summary": "This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor’s benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months.",
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    {
      "heading": "Overview and purpose",
      "content": "- This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches.\n- The WTLI is designed to provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings and evidence",
      "content": "- Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor’s benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months.\n- The WTLI is able to track the annual growth rate in global trade, suggesting that the recent slowdown is due in part to certain cyclical factors.\n- The WTLI is constructed on a monthly frequency and combines nonparametric and parametric methodologies to capture trade cycles."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Implications for analysis and policy",
      "content": "- The WTLI can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently.\n- Because the WTLI captures turning points with an average lead between 2 and 3 months, it can be used as an early signal for changes in global trade conditions that may affect macroeconomic policy decisions.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp1520\n  - wp1520 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp1520 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/a-world-trade-leading-index-wtli-42631"
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    "Authors: Karim Barhoumi, Laurent Ferrara",
    "Published: January 26, 2015",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498307543.001",
    "This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches.",
    "The WTLI is designed to provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently.",
    "Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor’s benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months.",
    "The WTLI is able to track the annual growth rate in global trade, suggesting that the recent slowdown is due in part to certain cyclical factors.",
    "The WTLI is constructed on a monthly frequency and combines nonparametric and parametric methodologies to capture trade cycles.",
    "The WTLI can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently.",
    "Because the WTLI captures turning points with an average lead between 2 and 3 months, it can be used as an early signal for changes in global trade conditions that may affect macroeconomic policy decisions.",
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