{
  "title": "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, March 1, 2006",
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  "summary": "The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Objective and scope",
      "content": "- Evaluates the quality of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery.\n- Assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient.\n- Characterizes how WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer.\n- Examines whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methods",
      "content": "- Conducts a series of statistical tests applied to WEO forecasts across many countries and variables.\n- Compares WEO forecast performance against actual outcomes and alternative forecasts (specifically the Consensus forecasts).\n- Analyzes forecast bias, informational efficiency, and revision dynamics as the forecast horizon shortens."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- The performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts.\n- WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions.\n- The analysis raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance (concerns noted but not enumerated in the overview).\n- The paper documents the process of forecast revision as the time to the forecasted point draws closer.\n- Combining WEO forecasts with Consensus forecasts is assessed as a potential means to improve forecasts."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Current account, Current account balance, Economic forecasting, GDP forecasting, Inflation\n- Keywords: mover accent, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp0659\n  - wp0659 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp0659 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/an-evaluation-of-the-world-economic-outlook-forecasts-18800"
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    "Authors: Allan Timmermann",
    "Published: March 1, 2006",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451863192.001",
    "Evaluates the quality of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery.",
    "Assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient.",
    "Characterizes how WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer.",
    "Examines whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts.",
    "Conducts a series of statistical tests applied to WEO forecasts across many countries and variables.",
    "Compares WEO forecast performance against actual outcomes and alternative forecasts (specifically the Consensus forecasts).",
    "Analyzes forecast bias, informational efficiency, and revision dynamics as the forecast horizon shortens.",
    "The performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts.",
    "WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions.",
    "The analysis raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance (concerns noted but not enumerated in the overview).",
    "The paper documents the process of forecast revision as the time to the forecasted point draws closer.",
    "Combining WEO forecasts with Consensus forecasts is assessed as a potential means to improve forecasts.",
    "Subject: Current account, Current account balance, Economic forecasting, GDP forecasting, Inflation",
    "Keywords: mover accent, WP",
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