{
  "title": "Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, November 16, 2016",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/arrears-to-the-imf-a-ghost-of-the-past-44408",
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  "summary": "In this paper, we consider incidences of arrears to the IMF, focusing on protracted arrears cases and attempt to identify determinants of their occurrence. We use narrative and formal methods. In addition, we analyze determinants of the duration of arrears.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Authors: Anne Oeking, Mariusz A. Sumlinski\n- Publication date: November 16, 2016\n- Paper focus: incidences of arrears to the IMF, with emphasis on protracted arrears cases; identification of determinants of occurrence and duration of arrears.\n- Methods: narrative and formal methods; analysis of determinants of the duration of arrears."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings and determinants",
      "content": "- Previous arrears, reserves coverage, and institutional quality are among the main determinants of arrears.\n- Political developments, including civil unrest, increase the likelihood that arrears will arise and that they will last longer.\n- Improved macroeconomic conditions and turnaround of political fortunes would help to clear the currently remaining protracted arrears cases."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methods and analytical approach",
      "content": "- Use of narrative methods.\n- Use of formal methods, including econometric analysis and logit models (as reflected in subject and keyword listings)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations",
      "content": "- Strengthen reserves coverage to reduce incidence and duration of arrears.\n- Improve institutional quality to decrease vulnerability to arrears.\n- Address political instability and civil unrest to reduce both the probability and persistence of arrears.\n- Pursue macroeconomic improvements to facilitate clearance of protracted arrears cases."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Arrears, Commodity price indexes, Credit, Econometric analysis, External debt, Logit models, Money, Prices\n- Keywords: Arrears, arrears case, arrears clearance, arrears occurrence, clearance path, Commodity price indexes, Credit, External Debt, Global, IMF credit, International Monetary Fund, Logit models, protracted arrears, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?\n  - Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past? (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past? (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/arrears-to-the-imf-a-ghost-of-the-past-44408"
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    "Authors: Anne Oeking, Mariusz A. Sumlinski",
    "Published: November 16, 2016",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475554823.001",
    "Authors: Anne Oeking, Mariusz A. Sumlinski",
    "Publication date: November 16, 2016",
    "Paper focus: incidences of arrears to the IMF, with emphasis on protracted arrears cases; identification of determinants of occurrence and duration of arrears.",
    "Methods: narrative and formal methods; analysis of determinants of the duration of arrears.",
    "Previous arrears, reserves coverage, and institutional quality are among the main determinants of arrears.",
    "Political developments, including civil unrest, increase the likelihood that arrears will arise and that they will last longer.",
    "Improved macroeconomic conditions and turnaround of political fortunes would help to clear the currently remaining protracted arrears cases.",
    "Use of narrative methods.",
    "Use of formal methods, including econometric analysis and logit models (as reflected in subject and keyword listings).",
    "Strengthen reserves coverage to reduce incidence and duration of arrears.",
    "Improve institutional quality to decrease vulnerability to arrears.",
    "Address political instability and civil unrest to reduce both the probability and persistence of arrears.",
    "Pursue macroeconomic improvements to facilitate clearance of protracted arrears cases.",
    "Subject: Arrears, Commodity price indexes, Credit, Econometric analysis, External debt, Logit models, Money, Prices",
    "Keywords: Arrears, arrears case, arrears clearance, arrears occurrence, clearance path, Commodity price indexes, Credit, External Debt, Global, IMF credit, International Monetary Fund, Logit models, protracted arrears, WP",
    "**Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?**"
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