## Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?

_IMF Working Papers, November 16, 2016_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/arrears-to-the-imf-a-ghost-of-the-past-44408)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/arrears-to-the-imf-a-ghost-of-the-past-44408/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/arrears-to-the-imf-a-ghost-of-the-past-44408/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/arrears-to-the-imf-a-ghost-of-the-past-44408/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Anne Oeking, Mariusz A. Sumlinski
- Published: November 16, 2016
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475554823.001

---

### Summary
- Authors: Anne Oeking, Mariusz A. Sumlinski
- Publication date: November 16, 2016
- Paper focus: incidences of arrears to the IMF, with emphasis on protracted arrears cases; identification of determinants of occurrence and duration of arrears.
- Methods: narrative and formal methods; analysis of determinants of the duration of arrears.

### Key findings and determinants
- Previous arrears, reserves coverage, and institutional quality are among the main determinants of arrears.
- Political developments, including civil unrest, increase the likelihood that arrears will arise and that they will last longer.
- Improved macroeconomic conditions and turnaround of political fortunes would help to clear the currently remaining protracted arrears cases.

### Methods and analytical approach
- Use of narrative methods.
- Use of formal methods, including econometric analysis and logit models (as reflected in subject and keyword listings).

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Strengthen reserves coverage to reduce incidence and duration of arrears.
- Improve institutional quality to decrease vulnerability to arrears.
- Address political instability and civil unrest to reduce both the probability and persistence of arrears.
- Pursue macroeconomic improvements to facilitate clearance of protracted arrears cases.

### Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Arrears, Commodity price indexes, Credit, Econometric analysis, External debt, Logit models, Money, Prices
- Keywords: Arrears, arrears case, arrears clearance, arrears occurrence, clearance path, Commodity price indexes, Credit, External Debt, Global, IMF credit, International Monetary Fund, Logit models, protracted arrears, WP

---

## Content in this bundle

- **Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?**
  - [Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past? (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/_wp16225.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past? (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/_wp16225.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/arrears-to-the-imf-a-ghost-of-the-past-44408_