{
  "title": "Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, March 27, 2014",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/assessing-bias-and-accuracy-in-the-world-bank-imf-s-debt-sustainability-framework-for-low-41444",
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  "summary": "The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At the core of the DSF are empirically-based thresholds for each of five different measures of the debt burden (the “debt threshold approach” DTA).",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Title: Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries\n- Authors: Andrew Berg, Enrico G Berkes, Catherine A Pattillo, Andrea F Presbitero, Yorbol Yakhshilikov\n- Date: March 27, 2014\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2014/048\n- Issue: 048\n- Volume: 2014\n- Pages: 39"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Research question and framework",
      "content": "- Focus: Evaluation of the World Bank–IMF debt sustainability framework (DSF) for Low Income Countries (LICs).\n- Core components analyzed:\n  - The “debt threshold approach” (DTA): empirically-based thresholds for each of five different measures of the debt burden.\n  - The “worst-case aggregator” (WCA): the DSF rule that treats a breach of any one threshold as sufficient to indicate high risk of debt distress.\n- Note: Neither the DTA nor the WCA had previously been subject to empirical testing prior to this study."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- The DTA loses information relative to a simple proposed alternative.\n- The WCA is too conservative (predicting crises too often) in terms of the loss function used in the DSF.\n- The WCA is less accurate than some simple proposed alternative aggregators as a predictor of debt distress."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Debt burden, Debt default, Debt sustainability, Debt sustainability analysis, Double taxation\n- Keywords: debt distress, debt measure, long-term debt, loss function, WP"
    },
    {
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      "content": "- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475579772.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2014048\n- ISBN: 9781475579772\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/assessing-bias-and-accuracy-in-the-world-bank-imf-s-debt-sustainability-framework-for-low-41444\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp1448\n  - wp1448 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp1448 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/assessing-bias-and-accuracy-in-the-world-bank-imf-s-debt-sustainability-framework-for-low-41444"
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    "Authors: Andrew Berg, Enrico G Berkes, Catherine A Pattillo, Andrea F Presbitero, Yorbol Yakhshilikov",
    "Published: March 27, 2014",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475579772.001",
    "Title: Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries",
    "Authors: Andrew Berg, Enrico G Berkes, Catherine A Pattillo, Andrea F Presbitero, Yorbol Yakhshilikov",
    "Date: March 27, 2014",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2014/048",
    "Issue: 048",
    "Volume: 2014",
    "Pages: 39",
    "Focus: Evaluation of the World Bank–IMF debt sustainability framework (DSF) for Low Income Countries (LICs).",
    "Core components analyzed:",
    "Note: Neither the DTA nor the WCA had previously been subject to empirical testing prior to this study.",
    "The DTA loses information relative to a simple proposed alternative.",
    "The WCA is too conservative (predicting crises too often) in terms of the loss function used in the DSF.",
    "The WCA is less accurate than some simple proposed alternative aggregators as a predictor of debt distress.",
    "Subject: Debt burden, Debt default, Debt sustainability, Debt sustainability analysis, Double taxation",
    "Keywords: debt distress, debt measure, long-term debt, loss function, WP",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475579772.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2014048",
    "ISBN: 9781475579772",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
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