{
  "title": "Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, May 19, 2015",
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  "summary": "This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and objective",
      "content": "- This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh.\n- It measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates.\n- It analyzes specific fiscal and institutional risks: the pension system, the issuance of guarantees, the state-owned commercial banks, and the external borrowing and debt management strategy.\n- Key finding: fiscal aggregates are particularly sensitive to shocks to commodity prices and exchange rates.\n- Other risks that could affect fiscal aggregates are the unfunded pension system and the limited institutional capacity."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Sensitivity analysis.\n- Stochastic simulations."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Major identified risk channels",
      "content": "- Macroeconomic shocks:\n  - Shocks to GDP growth.\n  - Shocks to the exchange rate.\n  - Shocks to commodity prices.\n  - Shocks to interest rates.\n- Specific fiscal and institutional risks:\n  - The pension system (noted as unfunded).\n  - The issuance of guarantees (contingent liabilities).\n  - State-owned commercial banks.\n  - External borrowing and debt management strategy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Findings and implications",
      "content": "- Fiscal aggregates exhibit particular sensitivity to:\n  - Commodity price shocks.\n  - Exchange rate shocks.\n- Institutional and structural vulnerabilities that could exacerbate fiscal risks:\n  - An unfunded pension system.\n  - Limited institutional capacity."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Aging, Expenditure, Fiscal risks, Labor, Macroeconomic risks, Pension spending, Pensions, Public debt, Public financial management (PFM)\n- Keywords include: Bangladesh; commodity price; contingent liabilities; debt; exchange rate; expenditure; fiscal risks; guarantees; Macroeconomic risks; Pension spending; pensions; shocks to GDP growth; sovereign debt; vis-à-vis budget figure; WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh; by Leandro Medina; IMF Working Paper No. 15/110; May 1, 2015\n  - Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh; by Leandro Medina; IMF Working Paper No. 15/110; May 1, 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh; by Leandro Medina; IMF Working Paper No. 15/110; May 1, 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/assessing-fiscal-risks-in-bangladesh-42947"
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    "Authors: Leandro Medina",
    "Published: May 19, 2015",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513551081.001",
    "This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh.",
    "It measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates.",
    "It analyzes specific fiscal and institutional risks: the pension system, the issuance of guarantees, the state-owned commercial banks, and the external borrowing and debt management strategy.",
    "Key finding: fiscal aggregates are particularly sensitive to shocks to commodity prices and exchange rates.",
    "Other risks that could affect fiscal aggregates are the unfunded pension system and the limited institutional capacity.",
    "Sensitivity analysis.",
    "Stochastic simulations.",
    "Macroeconomic shocks:",
    "Specific fiscal and institutional risks:",
    "Fiscal aggregates exhibit particular sensitivity to:",
    "Institutional and structural vulnerabilities that could exacerbate fiscal risks:",
    "Subject: Aging, Expenditure, Fiscal risks, Labor, Macroeconomic risks, Pension spending, Pensions, Public debt, Public financial management (PFM)",
    "Keywords include: Bangladesh; commodity price; contingent liabilities; debt; exchange rate; expenditure; fiscal risks; guarantees; Macroeconomic risks; Pension spending; pensions; shocks to GDP growth; sovereign debt; vis-à-vis budget figure; WP",
    "**Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh; by Leandro Medina; IMF Working Paper No. 15/110; May 1, 2015**"
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