{
  "title": "Assessing Fiscal Stress",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, May 1, 2011",
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  "summary": "This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies. Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal stress periods, covering public debt default as well as near-default events.",
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    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies.\n- Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal stress periods, covering public debt default as well as near-default events.\n- The fiscal stress index depends on a parsimonious set of fiscal indicators, aggregated using the approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998).\n- The index is used to assess the build up of fiscal stress over time since the mid-1990s in advanced and emering economies.\n- Fiscal stress has increased recently to record-high levels in advanced countries, reflecting raising solvency risks and financing needs.\n- In emerging economies, risks are lower than in mature economies owing to sounder fiscal fundamentals, but fiscal stress remains higher than before the crisis."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology and Indicators",
      "content": "- Index construction:\n  - Depends on a parsimonious set of fiscal indicators.\n  - Aggregation method: approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998).\n- Coverage:\n  - Assesses determinants of fiscal stress periods, including public debt default and near-default events.\n  - Time frame: build up of fiscal stress over time since the mid-1990s.\n- Country groups:\n  - Advanced economies are highlighted as having record-high fiscal stress recently.\n  - Emerging economies show lower risks than mature economies but remain above pre-crisis levels."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Findings",
      "content": "- Fiscal stress trends:\n  - Fiscal stress has increased recently to record-high levels in advanced countries.\n  - In emerging economies, fiscal stress remains higher than before the crisis despite lower risks relative to mature economies.\n- Risk drivers:\n  - Raising solvency risks and financing needs are associated with the rise in fiscal stress in advanced countries.\n- Comparative assessment:\n  - Emerging economies benefit from sounder fiscal fundamentals relative to mature economies, contributing to lower risks."
    },
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      "heading": "Subject Areas and Keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Financial crises, Fiscal risks, Government finance statistics, Macro-fiscal analysis, Public debt\n- Keywords: debt, default, economy, emerging economy, WP\n\nSource: IMF Working Papers — \"Assessing Fiscal Stress\" (Working Paper No. 2011/100, May 1, 2011).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp11100\n  - wp11100 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp11100 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/assessing-fiscal-stress-24822"
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    "Authors: Gabriela Dobrescu, Iva Petrova, Nazim Belhocine, Emanuele Baldacci",
    "Published: May 1, 2011",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455254316.001",
    "This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies.",
    "Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal stress periods, covering public debt default as well as near-default events.",
    "The fiscal stress index depends on a parsimonious set of fiscal indicators, aggregated using the approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998).",
    "The index is used to assess the build up of fiscal stress over time since the mid-1990s in advanced and emering economies.",
    "Fiscal stress has increased recently to record-high levels in advanced countries, reflecting raising solvency risks and financing needs.",
    "In emerging economies, risks are lower than in mature economies owing to sounder fiscal fundamentals, but fiscal stress remains higher than before the crisis.",
    "Index construction:",
    "Coverage:",
    "Country groups:",
    "Fiscal stress trends:",
    "Risk drivers:",
    "Comparative assessment:",
    "Subject: Financial crises, Fiscal risks, Government finance statistics, Macro-fiscal analysis, Public debt",
    "Keywords: debt, default, economy, emerging economy, WP",
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