{
  "title": "Assessing the Variability of Tax Elasticities in Lithuania",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, November 1, 2011",
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  "summary": "This paper quantifies the variability of tax elasticities in Lithuania using two alternative methods: rolling regressions and pooled mean group estimator. The analysis is motivated by the systematic variation of tax revenues observed over the economic cycle in the recent past.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Paper objective: Quantify the variability of tax elasticities in Lithuania using two alternative methods: rolling regressions and pooled mean group estimator.\n- Motivation: Systematic variation of tax revenues observed over the economic cycle in the recent past.\n- Primary emphasis: Importance of accounting for cyclical variation in tax elasticities when making short-term tax revenue projections."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methods",
      "content": "- Two estimation approaches used:\n  - Rolling regressions.\n  - Pooled mean group estimator."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Findings",
      "content": "- Both methods confirm that tax elasticities moved with the economic cycle.\n- Attributed drivers of cyclical movement:\n  - Procyclical tax compliance tendencies.\n  - Structural composition effects across tax bases.\n- Comparative recovery dynamics for VAT revenue gaps across Baltic countries:\n  - Tax revenues rebounded fastest in Estonia, followed by Lithuania and Latvia."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy Implications and Recommendations",
      "content": "- Short-term tax revenue projections should explicitly account for cyclical variation in tax elasticities.\n- Revenue forecasting and fiscal planning should consider:\n  - Variations in tax compliance over the cycle (procyclical compliance).\n  - Structural composition effects across different tax bases (e.g., VAT, corporate income tax, consumption)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject Areas and Keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Corporate income tax, National accounts, Private consumption, Revenue administration, Tax elasticity, Tax policy, Taxes, Value-added tax\n- Keywords: Baltics, Corporate income tax, economic cycles, Lithuania, Private consumption, revenue gap, tax elasticity, tax revenue, Value-added tax, VAT, VAT collection, VAT elasticity, VAT revenue collection, VAT revenue growth, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp11270\n  - wp11270 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp11270 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/assessing-the-variability-of-tax-elasticities-in-lithuania-25364"
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    "Authors: Tigran Poghosyan",
    "Published: November 1, 2011",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781463925222.001",
    "Paper objective: Quantify the variability of tax elasticities in Lithuania using two alternative methods: rolling regressions and pooled mean group estimator.",
    "Motivation: Systematic variation of tax revenues observed over the economic cycle in the recent past.",
    "Primary emphasis: Importance of accounting for cyclical variation in tax elasticities when making short-term tax revenue projections.",
    "Two estimation approaches used:",
    "Both methods confirm that tax elasticities moved with the economic cycle.",
    "Attributed drivers of cyclical movement:",
    "Comparative recovery dynamics for VAT revenue gaps across Baltic countries:",
    "Short-term tax revenue projections should explicitly account for cyclical variation in tax elasticities.",
    "Revenue forecasting and fiscal planning should consider:",
    "Subject: Corporate income tax, National accounts, Private consumption, Revenue administration, Tax elasticity, Tax policy, Taxes, Value-added tax",
    "Keywords: Baltics, Corporate income tax, economic cycles, Lithuania, Private consumption, revenue gap, tax elasticity, tax revenue, Value-added tax, VAT, VAT collection, VAT elasticity, VAT revenue collection, VAT revenue growth, WP",
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