{
  "title": "China’s Imports Slowdown: Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, March 7, 2016",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/chinas-imports-slowdown-spillovers-spillins-and-spillbacks-43774",
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  "summary": "The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China’s imports as a result of China’s rebalancing of its growth model.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary of purpose and approach",
      "content": "- Models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China’s imports as a result of China’s rebalancing of its growth model.\n- Uses a network-based model to capture higher round network effects of the shock that are largely unaccounted for in existing literature.\n- Network effects considered: direct spillovers from China on its trading partners, subsequent spillins among those partners, and spillbacks on China itself."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- The network effects most likely will be substantial, may amplify the initial shock, and can change the direction of its propagation.\n- Regional impact ranking (strongest to weakest):\n  - Asia and Pacific: strongest impact.\n  - Middle East and Central Asia: second strongest.\n  - Sub-Saharan Africa: noticeable only for some countries.\n  - Europe, including the Euro area: moderate spillovers.\n  - Western Hemisphere, including the United States: very marginal spillovers.\n- Sectoral impact:\n  - Metal and non-fuel commodity exporters may experience the largest negative impact."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Model characteristics and contributions",
      "content": "- Employs a network-based model to trace higher-order (round) effects across trading partners.\n- Captures:\n  - Direct spillovers from China to its trading partners.\n  - Spillins (propagation among affected partners).\n  - Spillbacks (feedback effects on China)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy-relevant implications",
      "content": "- Because network effects can amplify and redirect shocks, policymakers should consider second-round and network-mediated channels when assessing vulnerabilities to China’s import demand changes.\n- Regions and countries with concentrated exposure to metal and non-fuel commodity exports should prioritize contingency planning for demand shocks originating from China.\n- Regional cooperation and monitoring of trade network linkages can help identify and mitigate spillins that propagate shocks beyond direct bilateral exposures.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp1651\n  - wp1651 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp1651 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/chinas-imports-slowdown-spillovers-spillins-and-spillbacks-43774"
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    "Authors: Alexei P Kireyev, Andrei Leonidov",
    "Published: March 7, 2016",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513555850.001",
    "Models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China’s imports as a result of China’s rebalancing of its growth model.",
    "Uses a network-based model to capture higher round network effects of the shock that are largely unaccounted for in existing literature.",
    "Network effects considered: direct spillovers from China on its trading partners, subsequent spillins among those partners, and spillbacks on China itself.",
    "The network effects most likely will be substantial, may amplify the initial shock, and can change the direction of its propagation.",
    "Regional impact ranking (strongest to weakest):",
    "Sectoral impact:",
    "Employs a network-based model to trace higher-order (round) effects across trading partners.",
    "Captures:",
    "Because network effects can amplify and redirect shocks, policymakers should consider second-round and network-mediated channels when assessing vulnerabilities to China’s import demand changes.",
    "Regions and countries with concentrated exposure to metal and non-fuel commodity exports should prioritize contingency planning for demand shocks originating from China.",
    "Regional cooperation and monitoring of trade network linkages can help identify and mitigate spillins that propagate shocks beyond direct bilateral exposures.",
    "**_wp1651**"
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