{
  "title": "Chinese Imports: What’s Behind the Slowdown?",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, May 26, 2016",
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  "summary": "Real imports in China have decelerated significantly over the last two years to below 4 percent (yoy) from double-digit growth in previous years.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Key findings (summary)",
      "content": "- Real imports in China have decelerated significantly over the last two years to below 4 percent (yoy) from double-digit growth in previous years.\n- Weaker investment, partly due to progress in rebalancing from investment to consumption, has been the main factor accounting for about 40–50 percent of slowdown during this period.\n- Weaker exports account for about 40 percent of the slowdown, of which about a quarter is due to stronger RMB.\n- Onshoring—substitution of imported intermediate inputs with domestic production—has not been an additional drag over this period but it continues to slow import growth at a similar pace as previous periods.\n- There is large uncertainty about the impact of rebalancing on the import slowdown due to difficulties in identifying the counterfactual nonrebalancing path."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Drivers of the import slowdown",
      "content": "- Investment\n  - Weaker investment is the principal driver, explaining about 40–50 percent of the slowdown.\n  - Rebalancing from investment to consumption is explicitly cited as a contributing factor to weaker investment.\n- Exports and exchange rate\n  - Weaker export performance explains about 40 percent of the slowdown.\n  - Roughly a quarter of the export-related contribution to the slowdown is attributed to a stronger RMB.\n- Onshoring\n  - Onshoring has not added to the slowdown over this period relative to prior periods.\n  - Nonetheless, onshoring continues to slow import growth at a pace similar to earlier periods."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Uncertainty and methodological note",
      "content": "- Large uncertainty surrounds estimates of the impact of rebalancing on import slowdown.\n- The uncertainty stems from difficulties in identifying the counterfactual nonrebalancing path.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp16106\n  - wp16106 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp16106 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/chinese-imports-whats-behind-the-slowdown-43926"
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    "Authors: Joong S Kang, Wei Liao",
    "Published: May 26, 2016",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484368626.001",
    "Real imports in China have decelerated significantly over the last two years to below 4 percent (yoy) from double-digit growth in previous years.",
    "Weaker investment, partly due to progress in rebalancing from investment to consumption, has been the main factor accounting for about 40–50 percent of slowdown during this period.",
    "Weaker exports account for about 40 percent of the slowdown, of which about a quarter is due to stronger RMB.",
    "Onshoring—substitution of imported intermediate inputs with domestic production—has not been an additional drag over this period but it continues to slow import growth at a similar pace as previous periods.",
    "There is large uncertainty about the impact of rebalancing on the import slowdown due to difficulties in identifying the counterfactual nonrebalancing path.",
    "Investment",
    "Exports and exchange rate",
    "Onshoring",
    "Large uncertainty surrounds estimates of the impact of rebalancing on import slowdown.",
    "The uncertainty stems from difficulties in identifying the counterfactual nonrebalancing path.",
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