{
  "title": "Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, September 1, 2009",
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  "summary": "We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Study overview and model setup",
      "content": "- Authors: Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton\n- Date: September 1, 2009\n- Coverage: Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan\n- Key model features:\n  - The price of oil is modeled as a stochastic process.\n  - Interest rates have a zero floor.\n  - Bank lending tightening affects the United States.\n- Methodological note: To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, Latin hypercube sampling is employed."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Main findings and implications",
      "content": "- Derived confidence bands indicate non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an extended period.\n- Derived confidence bands indicate non-negligible risks that severe credit conditions might persist.\n- Subject areas addressed: Inflation, Oil prices, Output gap, Potential output, Real exchange rates\n- Keywords: confidence interval, interest rate, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp09214\n  - wp09214 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp09214 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/constructing-forecast-confidence-bands-during-the-financial-crisis-23321"
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    "Authors: Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton",
    "Published: September 1, 2009",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451873610.001",
    "Authors: Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton",
    "Date: September 1, 2009",
    "Coverage: Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan",
    "Key model features:",
    "Methodological note: To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, Latin hypercube sampling is employed.",
    "Derived confidence bands indicate non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an extended period.",
    "Derived confidence bands indicate non-negligible risks that severe credit conditions might persist.",
    "Subject areas addressed: Inflation, Oil prices, Output gap, Potential output, Real exchange rates",
    "Keywords: confidence interval, interest rate, WP",
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