## Determinants of Growth Spells: Is Africa Different?

_IMF Working Papers, September 1, 2012_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Charalambos G Tsangarides
- Published: September 1, 2012
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475510225.001

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### Research question and methodology
- Research question: Do growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest of the world, or because of different factors altogether?
- Methodology:
  - Bayesian Model Averaging techniques for proportional hazards models.
  - Definition used: growth spells are periods of sustained growth episodes between growth accelerations and decelerations.
  - Determinants examined include exogenous shocks, physical and human capital, macroeconomic policy, and sociopolitical factors.

### Key findings
- Overall conclusion:
  - Determinants of growth spells in Africa are different from those in the rest of the world.
- Determinants identified as robust and distinct to the world sample:
  - initial income
  - terms of trade
  - exchange rate undervaluation
  - inflation
- Determinants identified as robust and distinct to the Africa sample:
  - openness
  - droughts
- Determinants common to both samples but with very different marginal effects:
  - proxies for human capital
  - proxies for physical capital
  - changes in the world interest rate

### Policy-relevant implications (inferred from findings)
- Policies addressing inflation, exchange rate valuation, and terms of trade may be particularly relevant outside Africa (world sample).
- Policies addressing openness and vulnerability to droughts may be particularly relevant for African growth-spell duration.
- Investments in human and physical capital, and monitoring global interest rate movements, matter in both samples but require different calibrations given differing marginal effects.

### Publication and metadata
- Author: Charalambos G Tsangarides
- Publication date: September 1, 2012
- Series: Working Paper No. 2012/227
- Issue: 227
- Volume: 2012
- Pages: 32
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475510225.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2012227
- ISBN: 9781475510225
- ISSN: 1018-5941

*Summary derived from the IMF Working Paper "Determinants of Growth Spells: Is Africa Different?"*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/determinants-of-growth-spells-is-africa-different-26261_