{
  "title": "Do Unit Value Export, Import, and Terms of Trade Indices Represent or Misrepresent Price Indices?",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, May 1, 2007",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/do-unit-value-export-import-and-terms-of-trade-indices-represent-or-misrepresent-price-20943",
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  "summary": "Unit value export and import indices compiled from returns to customs authorities are often used as surrogates for price indices in the measurement of inflation transmission, terms of trade (effects), and to deflate import and export value series to derive volume series.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Author: Mick Silver\n- Date: May 1, 2007\n- Core question: Whether unit value export and import indices compiled from returns to customs authorities can accurately serve as surrogates for price indices in: measurement of inflation transmission; assessment of terms of trade (effects); and deflation of import and export value series to derive volume series.\n- Central conclusion: Unit value indices exhibit substantial bias in representing price changes; their continued use would mislead economic analysis.\n- Recommended direction: Move toward establishment-based price surveys and consider alternative strategies to improve current measures."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Evidence and Findings",
      "content": "- Unit value export and import indices are widely used primarily because they are relatively low cost compared with establishment price surveys.\n- The paper provides evidence of substantial bias in unit value indices’ representation of price changes.\n- Implication: Use of unit value indices as price proxies can distort analysis of inflation transmission, terms of trade effects, and volume measures derived from deflation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Evaluation of Alternatives",
      "content": "- The paper considers the efficacy of alternative strategies for improvement of current unit value–based measures.\n- The paper argues for a move to establishment-based price surveys as a superior approach to measuring trade prices."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy Recommendations and Analytical Implications",
      "content": "- Discontinue reliance on unit value export and import indices as surrogates for price indices where accurate measurement is required.\n- Develop and implement establishment-based price surveys for exports and imports.\n- Assess and adopt feasible intermediate strategies to reduce bias in existing unit value measures until establishment surveys are in place."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Publication and Identifiers",
      "content": "- Series: Working Paper No. 2007/121\n- Issue: 121\n- Volume: 2007\n- Pages: 34\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451866858.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2007121\n- ISBN: 9781451866858\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n\nSource: IMF Working Papers — \"Do Unit Value Export, Import, and Terms of Trade Indices Represent or Misrepresent Price Indices?\" by Mick Silver, May 1, 2007.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Wp07121\n  - Wp07121 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Wp07121 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/do-unit-value-export-import-and-terms-of-trade-indices-represent-or-misrepresent-price-20943"
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    "Authors: Mick Silver",
    "Published: May 1, 2007",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451866858.001",
    "Author: Mick Silver",
    "Date: May 1, 2007",
    "Core question: Whether unit value export and import indices compiled from returns to customs authorities can accurately serve as surrogates for price indices in: measurement of inflation transmission; assessment of terms of trade (effects); and deflation of import and export value series to derive volume series.",
    "Central conclusion: Unit value indices exhibit substantial bias in representing price changes; their continued use would mislead economic analysis.",
    "Recommended direction: Move toward establishment-based price surveys and consider alternative strategies to improve current measures.",
    "Unit value export and import indices are widely used primarily because they are relatively low cost compared with establishment price surveys.",
    "The paper provides evidence of substantial bias in unit value indices’ representation of price changes.",
    "Implication: Use of unit value indices as price proxies can distort analysis of inflation transmission, terms of trade effects, and volume measures derived from deflation.",
    "The paper considers the efficacy of alternative strategies for improvement of current unit value–based measures.",
    "The paper argues for a move to establishment-based price surveys as a superior approach to measuring trade prices.",
    "Discontinue reliance on unit value export and import indices as surrogates for price indices where accurate measurement is required.",
    "Develop and implement establishment-based price surveys for exports and imports.",
    "Assess and adopt feasible intermediate strategies to reduce bias in existing unit value measures until establishment surveys are in place.",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2007/121",
    "Issue: 121",
    "Volume: 2007",
    "Pages: 34",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451866858.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2007121",
    "ISBN: 9781451866858",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "**Wp07121**"
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