{
  "title": "Economic Transformation, Population Growth, and the Long-Run World Income Distribution",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, January 1, 2006",
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  "summary": "This paper considers the long-run evolution of the world economy in a model where countries' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies. As developing countries become advanced, they further improve trade opportunities for the remaining developing countries.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary of model and research question",
      "content": "- The paper studies the long-run evolution of the world economy in a model where countries' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies.\n- As developing countries become advanced, they further improve trade opportunities for the remaining developing countries.\n- Convergence to widespread prosperity depends on:\n  - the population growth differential between developing and advanced economies,\n  - the rate at which countries develop,\n  - potentially on initial conditions."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings and projections",
      "content": "- Whether the world economy converges to widespread prosperity is conditional on demographic and development dynamics rather than automatic.\n- A calibration using historical data suggests that the long-run prospects for lagging developing regions, such as Africa, likely hinge on the sufficiently rapid development of China and India."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Calibration and empirical approach",
      "content": "- The paper uses a calibration based on historical data to assess long-run prospects for lagging developing regions.\n- The calibration links development spillovers through trade with population growth differentials and rates of country development."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy-relevant implications",
      "content": "- Accelerating development in large developing economies (specifically China and India in the calibration) has important spillover effects for other lagging regions.\n- Demographic dynamics (population growth differentials) are a critical determinant of whether global convergence to higher incomes is feasible.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Wp0621\n  - Wp0621 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Wp0621 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/economic-transformation-population-growth-and-the-long-run-world-income-distribution-18739"
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    "Authors: Marcos Chamon, Michael R Kremer",
    "Published: January 1, 2006",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451862812.001",
    "The paper studies the long-run evolution of the world economy in a model where countries' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies.",
    "As developing countries become advanced, they further improve trade opportunities for the remaining developing countries.",
    "Convergence to widespread prosperity depends on:",
    "Whether the world economy converges to widespread prosperity is conditional on demographic and development dynamics rather than automatic.",
    "A calibration using historical data suggests that the long-run prospects for lagging developing regions, such as Africa, likely hinge on the sufficiently rapid development of China and India.",
    "The paper uses a calibration based on historical data to assess long-run prospects for lagging developing regions.",
    "The calibration links development spillovers through trade with population growth differentials and rates of country development.",
    "Accelerating development in large developing economies (specifically China and India in the calibration) has important spillover effects for other lagging regions.",
    "Demographic dynamics (population growth differentials) are a critical determinant of whether global convergence to higher incomes is feasible.",
    "**Wp0621**"
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