{
  "title": "Enhancing China’s Medium-Term Growth Prospects: The Path to a High-Income Economy",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, October 2, 2013",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/enhancing-chinas-medium-term-growth-prospects-the-path-to-a-high-income-economy-40977",
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  "summary": "China’s current growth model—which has delivered steady and robust growth for two decades and lifted some 500 million individuals out of poverty—has become too reliant on credit and investment, and has begun to experience diminishing returns.",
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    {
      "heading": "Summary and central findings",
      "content": "- China’s current growth model delivered steady and robust growth for two decades and lifted some 500 million individuals out of poverty.\n- The model has become too reliant on credit and investment, and has begun to experience diminishing returns.\n- Delays in advancing the government’s reform agenda will mean that vulnerabilities continue to grow and the probability of stalled convergence increases.\n- With reforms that accelerate TFP growth and shift the economy away from reliance on capital accumulation, China can grow at a healthy pace and maintain convergence toward the level of high income economies.\n- Evidence from China’s provinces indicates that there is room to improve productivity and sustain convergence toward the level of more prosperous economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Major themes and analytical focus",
      "content": "- Total factor productivity (TFP) growth as the key driver for medium-term improvement in growth prospects.\n- Need to rebalance the growth model away from capital accumulation toward productivity-enhancing reforms.\n- Provincial-level evidence used to assess room for productivity improvement and convergence dynamics.\n- Sectors and topics emphasized: Economic sectors, Employment, Expenditure, Labor, Production, Public expenditure review, Services sector, Total factor productivity."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommended directions",
      "content": "- Accelerate the government’s reform agenda to reduce vulnerabilities associated with credit- and investment-driven growth.\n- Implement reforms to boost TFP growth across the economy, including the service sector and areas highlighted by provincial evidence.\n- Shift policy emphasis from sustaining capital accumulation to productivity-enhancing measures to preserve convergence toward high-income levels.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp13204\n  - wp13204 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp13204 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 基金组织工作文章 13/204 ; 提高中国的中期增长前景： 迈向高收入经济体之路  ; 作者：Malhar Nabar 和 Papa N’Diaye ; 2013 年 10 月\n  - 基金组织工作文章 13/204 ; 提高中国的中期增长前景： 迈向高收入经济体之路  ; 作者：Malhar Nabar 和 Papa N’Diaye ; 2013 年 10 月 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 基金组织工作文章 13/204 ; 提高中国的中期增长前景： 迈向高收入经济体之路  ; 作者：Malhar Nabar 和 Papa N’Diaye ; 2013 年 10 月 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/enhancing-chinas-medium-term-growth-prospects-the-path-to-a-high-income-economy-40977"
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    "Authors: Malhar S Nabar, Papa M N'Diaye",
    "Published: October 2, 2013",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484354957.001",
    "China’s current growth model delivered steady and robust growth for two decades and lifted some 500 million individuals out of poverty.",
    "The model has become too reliant on credit and investment, and has begun to experience diminishing returns.",
    "Delays in advancing the government’s reform agenda will mean that vulnerabilities continue to grow and the probability of stalled convergence increases.",
    "With reforms that accelerate TFP growth and shift the economy away from reliance on capital accumulation, China can grow at a healthy pace and maintain convergence toward the level of high income economies.",
    "Evidence from China’s provinces indicates that there is room to improve productivity and sustain convergence toward the level of more prosperous economies.",
    "Total factor productivity (TFP) growth as the key driver for medium-term improvement in growth prospects.",
    "Need to rebalance the growth model away from capital accumulation toward productivity-enhancing reforms.",
    "Provincial-level evidence used to assess room for productivity improvement and convergence dynamics.",
    "Sectors and topics emphasized: Economic sectors, Employment, Expenditure, Labor, Production, Public expenditure review, Services sector, Total factor productivity.",
    "Accelerate the government’s reform agenda to reduce vulnerabilities associated with credit- and investment-driven growth.",
    "Implement reforms to boost TFP growth across the economy, including the service sector and areas highlighted by provincial evidence.",
    "Shift policy emphasis from sustaining capital accumulation to productivity-enhancing measures to preserve convergence toward high-income levels.",
    "**_wp13204**",
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