## Estimating Demand for IMF Financing by Low-Income Countries in Response to Shocks

_IMF Working Papers, December 1, 2009_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Yasemin Bal Gündüz
- Published: December 1, 2009
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451874082.001

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### Main findings
- Various economic variables are significant determinants of Fund financing for Low-Income Countries (LICs): reserve coverage, current account balance to GDP, real GDP growth, macroeconomic stability, and terms of trade shocks.
- Global conditions are also significant determinants: changes in real oil and non-oil commodity prices and changes in world trade.
- The demand for Fund financing by LICs is likely to be cyclical in response to common shocks, with intensity depending on the severity and persistence of adverse shocks.

### Methodological note (as presented)
- The paper estimates factors affecting demand for Fund financing by LICs in response to policy and exogenous shocks.

### Policy-relevant implications
- Monitoring reserve coverage, current account balance to GDP, real GDP growth, macroeconomic stability, and terms of trade shocks can help anticipate LIC demand for IMF financing.
- Global commodity price movements (real oil and non-oil) and world trade fluctuations should be integrated into assessments of financing needs for LICs.
- The cyclical nature of demand implies that responses should account for both the severity and the persistence of shocks.

### Subjects and keywords
- Subject: Balance of payments need, Commodity prices, Current account balance, Oil prices, Terms of trade
- Keywords: Fund financing, real GDP, WP

*Source: Estimating Demand for IMF Financing by Low-Income Countries in Response to Shocks, IMF Working Papers (2009), Working Paper No. 2009/263; Yasemin Bal Gündüz.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-demand-for-imf-financing-by-low-income-countries-in-response-to-shocks-23424_