{
  "title": "Estimating Poland's Potential Output: A Production Function Approach",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, January 1, 2010",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-poland-s-potential-output-a-production-function-approach-23528",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-poland-s-potential-output-a-production-function-approach-23528",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-poland-s-potential-output-a-production-function-approach-23528/index.md",
  "summary": "The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Uses a production-function approach based on a Cobb-Douglas production function methodology.\n- Emphasizes deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) to obtain a robust estimate of the labor input.\n- Employs Phillips Curve estimation as part of the unemployment/NAIRU analysis.\n- Uses the production function to derive medium-term projections of the output gap."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Labor input and natural rate of unemployment",
      "content": "- Focuses on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment.\n- Produces an estimated unemployment gap that is found to track well pressures on resource constraints.\n- Keywords indicating emphasis: long-run unemployment rate estimate, NAIRU, unemployment gap, Unemployment rate."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Main findings and historical assessment",
      "content": "- Prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential.\n- According to the methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.\n- Subject areas: Employment, Labor, Output gap, Potential output, Production, Unemployment rate."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Outputs, publication and identifiers",
      "content": "- Authors: Natan P. Epstein, Corrado Macchiarelli\n- Publication date: January 1, 2010\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2010/015\n- Issue: 015\n- Volume: 2010\n- Pages: 21\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451962093.001\n- ISBN: 9781451962093\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n- Stock No: WPIEA2010015\n\nSource: IMF Working Paper No. 2010/015 (Estimating Poland's Potential Output: A Production Function Approach).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 1. Time-Invariant NAIRU\n  - 1. Time-Invariant NAIRU (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 1. Time-Invariant NAIRU (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-poland-s-potential-output-a-production-function-approach-23528"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-poland-s-potential-output-a-production-function-approach-23528/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-poland-s-potential-output-a-production-function-approach-23528/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-poland-s-potential-output-a-production-function-approach-23528/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Natan P. Epstein, Corrado Macchiarelli",
    "Published: January 1, 2010",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451962093.001",
    "Uses a production-function approach based on a Cobb-Douglas production function methodology.",
    "Emphasizes deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) to obtain a robust estimate of the labor input.",
    "Employs Phillips Curve estimation as part of the unemployment/NAIRU analysis.",
    "Uses the production function to derive medium-term projections of the output gap.",
    "Focuses on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment.",
    "Produces an estimated unemployment gap that is found to track well pressures on resource constraints.",
    "Keywords indicating emphasis: long-run unemployment rate estimate, NAIRU, unemployment gap, Unemployment rate.",
    "Prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential.",
    "According to the methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.",
    "Subject areas: Employment, Labor, Output gap, Potential output, Production, Unemployment rate.",
    "Authors: Natan P. Epstein, Corrado Macchiarelli",
    "Publication date: January 1, 2010",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2010/015",
    "Issue: 015",
    "Volume: 2010",
    "Pages: 21",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451962093.001",
    "ISBN: 9781451962093",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2010015",
    "**1. Time-Invariant NAIRU**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "1. Time-Invariant NAIRU",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/_wp1015.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/_wp1015.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/_wp1015.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-poland-s-potential-output-a-production-function-approach-23528/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-poland-s-potential-output-a-production-function-approach-23528/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-poland-s-potential-output-a-production-function-approach-23528/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-17T12:58:30.327Z"
}