## Estimating Poland's Potential Output: A Production Function Approach

_IMF Working Papers, January 1, 2010_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Natan P. Epstein, Corrado Macchiarelli
- Published: January 1, 2010
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451962093.001

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### Methodology
- Uses a production-function approach based on a Cobb-Douglas production function methodology.
- Emphasizes deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) to obtain a robust estimate of the labor input.
- Employs Phillips Curve estimation as part of the unemployment/NAIRU analysis.
- Uses the production function to derive medium-term projections of the output gap.

### Labor input and natural rate of unemployment
- Focuses on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment.
- Produces an estimated unemployment gap that is found to track well pressures on resource constraints.
- Keywords indicating emphasis: long-run unemployment rate estimate, NAIRU, unemployment gap, Unemployment rate.

### Main findings and historical assessment
- Prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential.
- According to the methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.
- Subject areas: Employment, Labor, Output gap, Potential output, Production, Unemployment rate.

### Outputs, publication and identifiers
- Authors: Natan P. Epstein, Corrado Macchiarelli
- Publication date: January 1, 2010
- Series: Working Paper No. 2010/015
- Issue: 015
- Volume: 2010
- Pages: 21
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451962093.001
- ISBN: 9781451962093
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Stock No: WPIEA2010015

*Source: IMF Working Paper No. 2010/015 (Estimating Poland's Potential Output: A Production Function Approach).*

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## Content in this bundle

- **1. Time-Invariant NAIRU**
  - [1. Time-Invariant NAIRU (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/_wp1015.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [1. Time-Invariant NAIRU (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/_wp1015.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-poland-s-potential-output-a-production-function-approach-23528_