{
  "title": "Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, April 1, 2005",
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  "summary": "This paper proposes a new method of estimating the Taylor rule with a time-varying implicit inflation target and a time-varying natural rate of interest. The inflation target and the natural rate are modeled as random walks and are estimated using maximum likelihood and the Kalman filter.",
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    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Proposes a new method of estimating the Taylor rule with:\n  - a time-varying implicit inflation target, and\n  - a time-varying natural rate of interest.\n- The inflation target and the natural rate are modeled as random walks.\n- Estimation technique: maximum likelihood combined with the Kalman filter."
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      "heading": "Application and Findings",
      "content": "- Empirical application: U.S. monetary policy over the past 25 years.\n- Key finding: considerable time variation in the implicit inflation target.\n- Interpretation: results confirm hypotheses about \"opportunistic disinflation\" and the recent \"deflation scare.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and Keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Disinflation, Estimation techniques, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Output gap\n- Keywords: inflation target, rate of interest, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp0577\n  - wp0577 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp0577 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-the-implicit-inflation-target-an-application-to-u-s-18007"
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    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-the-implicit-inflation-target-an-application-to-u-s-18007/index.md)",
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    "Authors: Daniel Leigh",
    "Published: April 1, 2005",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451860962.001",
    "Proposes a new method of estimating the Taylor rule with:",
    "The inflation target and the natural rate are modeled as random walks.",
    "Estimation technique: maximum likelihood combined with the Kalman filter.",
    "Empirical application: U.S. monetary policy over the past 25 years.",
    "Key finding: considerable time variation in the implicit inflation target.",
    "Interpretation: results confirm hypotheses about \"opportunistic disinflation\" and the recent \"deflation scare.\"",
    "Subject: Disinflation, Estimation techniques, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Output gap",
    "Keywords: inflation target, rate of interest, WP",
    "**_wp0577**"
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