{
  "title": "Evolution of Debt Sustainability Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Some Aggregate Evidence",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, June 1, 2012",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/evolution-of-debt-sustainability-analysis-in-low-income-countries-some-aggregate-evidence-26025",
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  "summary": "The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for low-income countries (LICs) is a standardized analytical tool to monitor debt sustainability. This paper uses DSAs from three periods around the time of the global economic crisis to analyze the projected trajectories of debt ratios for a sample of LICs.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and purpose",
      "content": "- The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for low-income countries (LICs) is a standardized analytical tool to monitor debt sustainability.\n- This paper uses DSAs from three periods around the time of the global economic crisis to analyze the projected trajectories of debt ratios for a sample of LICs."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings (aggregate evidence)",
      "content": "- LIC vulnerabilities improved on the whole during the period prior to the crisis.\n- The crisis had a strong short-run impact on key debt ratios:\n  - debt-to-GDP\n  - debt-to-exports\n  - debt-to-fiscal revenues\n- The crisis also had a strong short-run impact on debt service ratios:\n  - debt service-to-exports\n  - debt service-to-revenues\n- Although projected debt burdens increased following the crisis, debt indicators tend to return to their pre-crisis levels over the projection horizon."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Interpretation and possible explanations",
      "content": "- The observed return of debt indicators to pre-crisis levels over the projection horizon may reflect:\n  - a strong and durable policy response by LICs towards the crisis, or\n  - specific assumptions on the long-run growth dividends of public external debt.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 1. Sample Countries\n  - 1. Sample Countries (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 1. Sample Countries (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/evolution-of-debt-sustainability-analysis-in-low-income-countries-some-aggregate-evidence-26025"
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    "Authors: Benedicte Baduel, Robert T Price",
    "Published: June 1, 2012",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475505153.001",
    "The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for low-income countries (LICs) is a standardized analytical tool to monitor debt sustainability.",
    "This paper uses DSAs from three periods around the time of the global economic crisis to analyze the projected trajectories of debt ratios for a sample of LICs.",
    "LIC vulnerabilities improved on the whole during the period prior to the crisis.",
    "The crisis had a strong short-run impact on key debt ratios:",
    "The crisis also had a strong short-run impact on debt service ratios:",
    "Although projected debt burdens increased following the crisis, debt indicators tend to return to their pre-crisis levels over the projection horizon.",
    "The observed return of debt indicators to pre-crisis levels over the projection horizon may reflect:",
    "**1. Sample Countries**"
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