{
  "title": "Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, November 2, 2012",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/exogenous-shocks-and-growth-crises-in-low-income-countries-a-vulnerability-index-40079",
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  "summary": "This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries.",
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      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Paper develops a new index providing early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries.\n- Uses a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators mapped into a composite vulnerability index.\n- Main finding summarized: vulnerabilities declined significantly from peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Multivariate regression analysis is employed to relate indicators to crisis outcomes.\n- A univariate signaling approach complements the multivariate analysis to produce early warning signals.\n- Underlying information sources: policy, structural, and institutional indicators (parsimonious set)."
    },
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      "heading": "Key Findings",
      "content": "- Vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries:\n  - Declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s.\n  - Have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended after the global financial crisis."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject Areas and Keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Currency markets, Exchange rate arrangements, Export prices, Exports, Financial crises, Financial markets, Foreign exchange, International trade, Prices\n- Keywords: confidence interval, crisis probability, Currency markets, Exchange rate arrangements, explanatory variable, Export prices, Exports, Global, growth crises, growth crisis, low-income countries, real GDP growth, terms of trade, Vulnerability index, WP\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Wp12264\n  - Wp12264 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Wp12264 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/exogenous-shocks-and-growth-crises-in-low-income-countries-a-vulnerability-index-40079"
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    "Authors: Era Dabla-Norris, Yasemin Bal Gündüz",
    "Published: November 2, 2012",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475528510.001",
    "Paper develops a new index providing early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries.",
    "Uses a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators mapped into a composite vulnerability index.",
    "Main finding summarized: vulnerabilities declined significantly from peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.",
    "Multivariate regression analysis is employed to relate indicators to crisis outcomes.",
    "A univariate signaling approach complements the multivariate analysis to produce early warning signals.",
    "Underlying information sources: policy, structural, and institutional indicators (parsimonious set).",
    "Vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries:",
    "Subject: Currency markets, Exchange rate arrangements, Export prices, Exports, Financial crises, Financial markets, Foreign exchange, International trade, Prices",
    "Keywords: confidence interval, crisis probability, Currency markets, Exchange rate arrangements, explanatory variable, Export prices, Exports, Global, growth crises, growth crisis, low-income countries, real GDP growth, terms of trade, Vulnerability index, WP",
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