{
  "title": "Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, May 9, 2014",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/export-spillovers-from-global-shocks-for-the-middle-east-and-central-asia-41546",
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  "summary": "This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary of research question and approach",
      "content": "- Quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.\n- Uses estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP to assess responsiveness of export categories."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key empirical findings",
      "content": "- Non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive to trading partner GDP.\n- Service exports are less responsive to trading partner GDP.\n- Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance.\n- The possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports.\n- Regional sensitivities:\n  - Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe.\n  - CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy-relevant implications",
      "content": "- Monitoring and stress-testing export exposure to trading-partner GDP shocks is important for countries in the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.\n- Diversification away from trade linkages concentrated in vulnerable trading partners (e.g., Europe for the Maghreb; BRICS for CCA countries) could reduce export downside risks.\n- Differentiated approaches may be warranted given varying responsiveness across export categories (non-oil goods versus services)."
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      "content": "- Authors: Alberto Behar, Jaime Espinosa-Bowen\n- Date: May 9, 2014\n- Pages: 31\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2014/080\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484380796.001\n\nExport Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia — Alberto Behar; Jaime Espinosa-Bowen; IMF Working Paper No. 2014/080; May 9, 2014.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp1480\n  - wp1480 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp1480 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/export-spillovers-from-global-shocks-for-the-middle-east-and-central-asia-41546"
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    "Authors: Alberto Behar, Jaime Espinosa-Bowen",
    "Published: May 9, 2014",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484380796.001",
    "Quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.",
    "Uses estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP to assess responsiveness of export categories.",
    "Non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive to trading partner GDP.",
    "Service exports are less responsive to trading partner GDP.",
    "Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance.",
    "The possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports.",
    "Regional sensitivities:",
    "Monitoring and stress-testing export exposure to trading-partner GDP shocks is important for countries in the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.",
    "Diversification away from trade linkages concentrated in vulnerable trading partners (e.g., Europe for the Maghreb; BRICS for CCA countries) could reduce export downside risks.",
    "Differentiated approaches may be warranted given varying responsiveness across export categories (non-oil goods versus services).",
    "Authors: Alberto Behar, Jaime Espinosa-Bowen",
    "Date: May 9, 2014",
    "Pages: 31",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2014/080",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484380796.001",
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