## External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries

_IMF Working Papers, August 1, 2011_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/external-sustainability-of-oil-producing-sub-saharan-african-countries-25197)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Robert C York, Misa Takebe
- Published: August 1, 2011
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781463902872.001

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### Summary
- Focus: Assess external sustainability for oil-producing sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, an aspect often omitted in IMF empirical work that typically focuses on fiscal sustainability and the "optimal" non-oil primary fiscal deficit.
- Objective: Provide a range of estimates for the long-run external current external account balance for each SSA oil-producing country using three widely used IMF methodologies.
- Scope: Apply the three models to eight countries in the subregion using similar simplifying assumptions to enable comparability:
  - Angola
  - Cameroon
  - Chad
  - Côte d'Ivoire
  - Equatorial Guinea
  - Gabon
  - Nigeria
  - Republic of Congo

### Methodology
- Approaches: The paper uses three widely used methodologies in the IMF to estimate the long-run external current external account balance.
- Comparative design: Models are applied under similar simplifying assumptions to ensure the same analytical lens across the eight countries.
- Rationale: External sustainability is particularly important for SSA oil producers operating under a fixed exchange rate regime.

### Key Content and Themes
- Emphasis on external current account balance as the metric for long-run external sustainability.
- Links to broader IMF empirical literature on oil-producing countries, noting that recent papers extended methodologies but did not focus on SSA.
- Subject classifications: Balance of payments, Commodities, Consumption, Current account, Current account balance, National accounts, Oil, Oil prices, Prices.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/external-sustainability-of-oil-producing-sub-saharan-african-countries-25197_