{
  "title": "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, April 1, 2011",
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  "summary": "This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of financial cycles using a large database covering 21 advanced countries over the period 1960:1-2007:4. Specifically, we analyze cycles in credit, house prices, and equity prices. We report three main results.",
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    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Comprehensive analysis of financial cycles using a large database covering 21 advanced countries over the period 1960:1-2007:4.\n- Cycles analyzed: credit, house prices, and equity prices.\n- Three main results are reported concerning duration, synchronization, and interaction/magnification of financial cycles.\n- The paper discusses how these findings can guide future research on various aspects of financial market developments."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Main findings",
      "content": "- Financial cycles tend to be long and severe, especially those in housing and equity markets.\n- Financial cycles are highly synchronized within countries, particularly credit and house price cycles.\n- The extent of synchronization of financial cycles across countries is high as well, mainly for credit and equity cycles, and has been increasing over time.\n- Financial cycles accentuate each other and become magnified, especially during coincident downturns in credit and housing markets.\n- Globally synchronized downturns tend to be associated with more prolonged and costly episodes, especially for credit and equity cycles."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Data scope and focus",
      "content": "- Sample: 21 advanced countries.\n- Sample period: 1960:1-2007:4.\n- Asset types examined: credit, house prices, equity prices."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Implications for research and policy guidance",
      "content": "- Findings can guide future research on various aspects of financial market developments, including:\n  - The long duration and severity of housing and equity cycles warrant further study of their drivers and macroeconomic effects.\n  - High within-country synchronization between credit and house price cycles suggests joint modeling and monitoring of these indicators.\n  - Increasing cross-country synchronization of credit and equity cycles points to the importance of cross-border spillovers and international policy coordination.\n  - The magnification of effects during coincident downturns, notably credit and housing, highlights the need to understand amplification mechanisms and to design policies to mitigate systemic amplification.\n  - Globally synchronized downturns producing more prolonged and costly episodes indicate value in global surveillance and preemptive measures."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics and publication identifiers",
      "content": "- Countries covered: 21 advanced countries.\n- Period covered: 1960:1-2007:4.\n- Pages: 40.\n- Volume: 2011.\n- Issue: 076.\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2011/076.\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455227037.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2011076\n- ISBN: 9781455227037\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n\nMarco Terrones, Ayhan Kose, and Stijn Claessens. \"Financial Cycles: What? How? When?\", April 1, 2011.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp1176\n  - wp1176 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp1176 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/financial-cycles-what-how-when-24775"
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    "Authors: Marco Terrones, Ayhan Kose, Stijn Claessens",
    "Published: April 1, 2011",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455227037.001",
    "Comprehensive analysis of financial cycles using a large database covering 21 advanced countries over the period 1960:1-2007:4.",
    "Cycles analyzed: credit, house prices, and equity prices.",
    "Three main results are reported concerning duration, synchronization, and interaction/magnification of financial cycles.",
    "The paper discusses how these findings can guide future research on various aspects of financial market developments.",
    "Financial cycles tend to be long and severe, especially those in housing and equity markets.",
    "Financial cycles are highly synchronized within countries, particularly credit and house price cycles.",
    "The extent of synchronization of financial cycles across countries is high as well, mainly for credit and equity cycles, and has been increasing over time.",
    "Financial cycles accentuate each other and become magnified, especially during coincident downturns in credit and housing markets.",
    "Globally synchronized downturns tend to be associated with more prolonged and costly episodes, especially for credit and equity cycles.",
    "Sample: 21 advanced countries.",
    "Sample period: 1960:1-2007:4.",
    "Asset types examined: credit, house prices, equity prices.",
    "Findings can guide future research on various aspects of financial market developments, including:",
    "Countries covered: 21 advanced countries.",
    "Period covered: 1960:1-2007:4.",
    "Pages: 40.",
    "Volume: 2011.",
    "Issue: 076.",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2011/076.",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455227037.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2011076",
    "ISBN: 9781455227037",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
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