{
  "title": "Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria: Low But Still Relevant",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, February 25, 2013",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/fiscal-multipliers-in-bulgaria-low-but-still-relevant-40342",
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  "summary": "With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Study scope and methods",
      "content": "- Quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and model-based approaches.\n- Context: fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria amid a weak economic growth environment.\n- Economy characterized as a small open emerging economy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings on fiscal multipliers and transmission",
      "content": "- Fiscal multipliers have been modest in the past.\n- The effect on output is not independent of the speed of adjustment and the specific consolidation measures used.\n- The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is larger in downturns than in expansions.\n- Capital spending and direct taxes are associated with the largest effects on output.\n- Non-targeted government transfers and indirect taxes are associated with a smaller impact on output.\n- Results suggest that increased capital spending financed by higher indirect tax revenue collections through base broadening has sizeable growth effects over the medium and long-term."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations",
      "content": "- Prioritize composition of fiscal adjustment to be more growth friendly given weak growth and fast consolidation.\n- Consider increasing capital spending to enhance medium- and long-term growth effects.\n- Finance higher capital spending via indirect tax revenue collections through base broadening to achieve sizeable growth effects.\n- Account for the business cycle when designing fiscal measures, as multipliers are larger in downturns."
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      "content": "- Authors: Dirk V Muir, Miss Anke Weber\n- Date: February 25, 2013\n- IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2013/049\n- Pages: 19\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475560473.001\n\nSource: IMF Working Paper No. 2013/049, Dirk V Muir and Miss Anke Weber, \"Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria: Low But Still Relevant\", February 25, 2013.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- wp1349 - Section IV outlines some of the basic features and calibration of GIMF, and presents its\n  - wp1349 - Section IV outlines some of the basic features and calibration of GIMF, and presents its (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - wp1349 - Section IV outlines some of the basic features and calibration of GIMF, and presents its (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/fiscal-multipliers-in-bulgaria-low-but-still-relevant-40342"
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    "Authors: Dirk V Muir, Anke Weber",
    "Published: February 25, 2013",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475560473.001",
    "Quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and model-based approaches.",
    "Context: fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria amid a weak economic growth environment.",
    "Economy characterized as a small open emerging economy.",
    "Fiscal multipliers have been modest in the past.",
    "The effect on output is not independent of the speed of adjustment and the specific consolidation measures used.",
    "The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is larger in downturns than in expansions.",
    "Capital spending and direct taxes are associated with the largest effects on output.",
    "Non-targeted government transfers and indirect taxes are associated with a smaller impact on output.",
    "Results suggest that increased capital spending financed by higher indirect tax revenue collections through base broadening has sizeable growth effects over the medium and long-term.",
    "Prioritize composition of fiscal adjustment to be more growth friendly given weak growth and fast consolidation.",
    "Consider increasing capital spending to enhance medium- and long-term growth effects.",
    "Finance higher capital spending via indirect tax revenue collections through base broadening to achieve sizeable growth effects.",
    "Account for the business cycle when designing fiscal measures, as multipliers are larger in downturns.",
    "Authors: Dirk V Muir, Miss Anke Weber",
    "Date: February 25, 2013",
    "IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2013/049",
    "Pages: 19",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475560473.001",
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