{
  "title": "Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, June 26, 2013",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/fiscal-policy-over-the-election-cycle-in-low-income-countries-40710",
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  "summary": "Focusing on Low-Income Countries, we investigate the behavior of fiscal variables during and after elections. The results indicate that during election years, government consumption significantly increases and leads to higher fiscal deficits.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and main findings",
      "content": "- Focus: Low-Income Countries (LICs); investigation of fiscal-variable behavior during and after elections.\n- During election years:\n  - Government consumption significantly increases.\n  - Higher fiscal deficits result from increased government consumption.\n- During the two years following elections:\n  - Fiscal adjustment occurs through increased revenue mobilization in trade taxes.\n  - Cuts are concentrated in government investment.\n  - No significant cuts in government consumption are observed.\n- Institutional mitigants:\n  - The presence of fiscal rules helps dampen the magnitude of the political budget cycle in LICs.\n  - IMF programs also help dampen the magnitude of the political budget cycle in LICs.\n- Conclusion: Elections imply a macroeconomic cost when they take place and trigger a subsequent fiscal adjustment in which public investment is largely sacrificed."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Data, scope, and methods (as reported)",
      "content": "- New dataset used on national fiscal rules and IMF programs to assess their moderating effects on political budget cycles.\n- Geographic focus includes Sub-Saharan Africa among LICs (as indicated in keywords)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations (as reported)",
      "content": "- Strengthening or maintaining fiscal rules can reduce the magnitude of election-driven fiscal expansions.\n- Engagement with IMF programs can help dampen political budget cycles.\n- Attention needed to protect public investment during post-election fiscal adjustments to avoid long-term growth costs."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Publication and metadata",
      "content": "- Authors: Christian H Ebeke, Dilan Ölcer\n- Publication date: June 26, 2013\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2013/153\n- Issue: 153\n- Volume: 2013\n- Pages: 24\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475588514.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2013153\n- ISBN: 9781475588514\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n- Preview citation format provided: Christian H Ebeke, and Dilan Ölcer. \"Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries\", IMF Working Papers 2013, 153 (2013), accessed 9/9/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475588514.001\n\nIMF Working Paper — Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Wp13153\n  - Wp13153 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Wp13153 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/fiscal-policy-over-the-election-cycle-in-low-income-countries-40710"
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    "Authors: Christian H Ebeke, Dilan Ölcer",
    "Published: June 26, 2013",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475588514.001",
    "Focus: Low-Income Countries (LICs); investigation of fiscal-variable behavior during and after elections.",
    "During election years:",
    "During the two years following elections:",
    "Institutional mitigants:",
    "Conclusion: Elections imply a macroeconomic cost when they take place and trigger a subsequent fiscal adjustment in which public investment is largely sacrificed.",
    "New dataset used on national fiscal rules and IMF programs to assess their moderating effects on political budget cycles.",
    "Geographic focus includes Sub-Saharan Africa among LICs (as indicated in keywords).",
    "Strengthening or maintaining fiscal rules can reduce the magnitude of election-driven fiscal expansions.",
    "Engagement with IMF programs can help dampen political budget cycles.",
    "Attention needed to protect public investment during post-election fiscal adjustments to avoid long-term growth costs.",
    "Authors: Christian H Ebeke, Dilan Ölcer",
    "Publication date: June 26, 2013",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2013/153",
    "Issue: 153",
    "Volume: 2013",
    "Pages: 24",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475588514.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2013153",
    "ISBN: 9781475588514",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Preview citation format provided: Christian H Ebeke, and Dilan Ölcer. \"Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries\", IMF Working Papers 2013, 153 (2013), accessed 9/9/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475588514.001",
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