## Forecasting U.S. Investment

_IMF Working Papers, November 1, 2010_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Pau Rabanal, Jaewoo Lee
- Published: November 1, 2010
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455209460.001

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### Summary
- The driving force of U.S. economic growth is expected to rotate from the fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding in 2009 to private demand in 2010.
- Consumption and particularly investment are expected to be important contributors to growth.
- On the basis of several traditional models of investment, the authors forecast that U.S. investment in equipment and software will grow by about 10 percent on average over the 2010-12 period.
- The contribution of investment to real GDP growth is forecast to be 0.8 percentage points on average over the 2010-12 period.

### Findings and Projections
- U.S. investment in equipment and software: grow by about 10 percent on average over the 2010-12 period.
- Contribution of investment to real GDP growth: 0.8 percentage points on average over the 2010-12 period.
- Structural shift in growth drivers: from 2009 fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding to private demand in 2010, with investment a key component.

### Methodology and Scope
- Forecasts are produced on the basis of several traditional models of investment.
- Subjects covered: Capital productivity, Economic forecasting, Private investment, Vector autoregression, Vector error correction models.
- Keywords included in the study: cost of capital, E&S, investment, ratio, real GDP, WP.

### Key Statistics
- Timeframe of projection: 2010-12
- Projected equipment and software investment growth: about 10 percent (average over 2010-12)
- Projected contribution to real GDP growth from investment: 0.8 percentage points (average over 2010-12)
- Pages: 33
- Series: Working Paper No. 2010/246
- Issue: 246
- Volume: 2010
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455209460.001

*Pau Rabanal, and Jaewoo Lee, "Forecasting U.S. Investment", IMF Working Papers 2010, 246 (2010), https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455209460.001*

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## Content in this bundle

- **9. Real GDP Forecasts**
  - [9. Real GDP Forecasts (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/_wp10246.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/forecasting-u-s-24333_